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THREAD on latest data on B.1.617.2 (an "India" Variant) in England.
The Sanger Institute released its latest sequencing data for variants in England today
https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/about
TLDR:">https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/about&quo... it& #39;s not looking good at all. 1/6
The Sanger Institute released its latest sequencing data for variants in England today
https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/about
TLDR:">https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/about&quo... it& #39;s not looking good at all. 1/6
Sanger removes cases from travellers to England & from surge testing to get a picture of what is happening in the community.
In England, within TWO weeks to 1 May, B.1.617.2 (the new variant of concern) went from 1% to 11% of cases. Other variants <1%.
A massive increase. 2/6
In England, within TWO weeks to 1 May, B.1.617.2 (the new variant of concern) went from 1% to 11% of cases. Other variants <1%.
A massive increase. 2/6
This is concentrated in a few regions: London, the NW (quickest rise), East of England and then E Midlands & SE.
PHE also highlighted London and NW as particularly concerning in its Friday report
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984274/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_10_England.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen... 3/6
PHE also highlighted London and NW as particularly concerning in its Friday report
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984274/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_10_England.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen... 3/6
In the NW cases are concentrated in a few towns with v high proportion B.1.617 w/e 1 May: highest are Blackburn with Darwen (75%), Bedford (73%), Bolton (69%).
These are obv low numbers of cases. But what is happening to overall covid cases here? 4/6
These are obv low numbers of cases. But what is happening to overall covid cases here? 4/6
Downloading data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/d... for each local authority shows that, compared to week before, cases in week to 5th May have increased by 43% (Blackburn), 58% (Bedford) and 91% (Bolton).
It& #39;s not more tests - tests look flat & all 3 have growing PCR positivity. 5/6
It& #39;s not more tests - tests look flat & all 3 have growing PCR positivity. 5/6
Under *current* restrictions, within a context of v infectious B117 ("Kent" variant) and *high population immunity* B.1.617.2 seems to be spreading quickly.
Numbers still low(ish) but for how much longer? What will happen after 17th May when so much more opens? 6/6
Numbers still low(ish) but for how much longer? What will happen after 17th May when so much more opens? 6/6
