Let& #39;s try a little counterfactual thread

The critique from plenty of people in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> and https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches"> has been https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> got its vaccines strategy *wrong*

So if it were wrong, what should it have done better?

First BioNTech/Pfizer orders and approval

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches"> approved 3 weeks before https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">, and received a solid early order (shipped from Puurs https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇪" title="Flagge von Belgien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Belgien">)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches"> signed contract with Pfizer/BioNTech 4 months before https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">, but EIB and https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇪" title="Flagge von Deutschland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Deutschland"> provided funding, https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches"> govt did not

BioNTech has also stated that more public funding would have not helped it scale up faster

Also looking forward, with Marburg https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇪" title="Flagge von Deutschland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Deutschland">, Frankfurt https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇪" title="Flagge von Deutschland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Deutschland"> due on stream in a couple of months, and lipids from Hanau https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇪" title="Flagge von Deutschland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Deutschland"> (Evonik) to complete the https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">-based supply chain, this looks solid now

What could https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> have done better?

*Perhaps* approved earlier
*Perhaps* ordered earlier, so as to have secured more doses in Q1 - but before Puurs upgrade total doses were limited overall

What about AstraZeneca?

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches"> approved 4 weeks ahead of https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">, but due to the thin data available there was perhaps good reason for caution here. And what has happened since has borne this out

Extent of AZ having an exclusive supply arrangement with https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches"> hasn& #39;t been definitively answered, but given https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches"> has AZ production of 6m AZ doses/month, even were that not the case, production from https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches"> would not have made up the shortfall

The crux: AZ projected 100m doses for Q1 to https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> and delivered 31m. Had that not been the case, vaccine roll out in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> would have been further along

The mystery of the Halix plant contributes to this - we still don& #39;t know what& #39;s up there

What could https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> have done to improve this in 2021 until now? Pretty much nothing, as the news of the shortfall came too late (22 Jan)

What about Moderna?

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> has a rather small order of it (as does https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches"> for that matter) and it has not been central to roll out for either

Johnson & Johnson?

This is a harder one to unpick. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> realised in January or February that the J&J plan to manufacture in Leiden https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇳🇱" title="Flagge der Niederlande" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Niederlande"> and bottle in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> would lead to doses getting stuck in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">, so sorted a supply chain in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇪" title="Flagge von Deutschland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Deutschland">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇸" title="Flagge von Spanien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Spanien"> instead

Had https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> been alert to this danger sooner - in autumn rather than in early 2021 - it& #39;s possible there might be a little more J&J on stream already now

So - in summary - even *if* https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> had done pretty much everything in its control right, it would have had a little more Pfizer/BioNTech sooner (up to 20m doses) and perhaps some more J&J (no more than 10m)

Given an EU adult population of 330m or so, that& #39;d still mean the vaccination supply in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> would not have been significantly better than it is now

Are there other problems?

Yes, notably roll out - looking at the rates at which vaccines have been going into arms, https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches">& #39;s NHS did very well. But likewise so have some EU Member States like https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇰" title="Flagge von Dänemark" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Dänemark">. But https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> *itself* is not responsible for getting doses into arms

There is also the other aspect of a counter-factual: if https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> had not handled procurement jointly, vaccine supply would vary wildly between Member States, leaving poorer states and those without their own supply suffering. Doing this jointly made sense

So, to conclude:
Was this done perfectly? NO
Were there errors? YES
How much better would vaccine supply be in EU be in a best-case? A LITTLE

Let& #39;s keep the doomsday takes in perspective please!

/ends