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$FSLY analysis after Raymond James report this morning
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$FSLY RJ analyst report this morning focusing on RPM is not just laughable but absurd and ridiculous. Billing on bandwidth is much more common as RPS are a much lower input (and often waived). Now let& #39;s look at the bandwidth numbers.
$FSLY RJ analyst usage of "average" bandwidth is also flawed. 90-95 percentile is more indicative of the revenue recognition. While RJ monitor polls every 15 minutes, we have data every 30 seconds for better modelling.
$FSLY as per my model the bandwidth in q1 will increase roughly by 5 Tbps at 90th percentile. In revenue terms it translates to 92 mil for q1. This assumes conservative revenue from SS & NO revenue from new revenue streams. Model also includes discount for high usage.
$FSLY for q2 guidance, the bandwidth usage will rise proportionately (minus Mar madness bump). April has already settled at an elevated bandwidth levels. About potential risk of lifting lockdowns, some will get compensated by increased usage by travel and hospitality clients.
$FSLY the model also doesn& #39;t consider revenues from $OKTA $DDOG and other partnerships. Investment in WebAssembly will also increase adoption.
$FSLY CDN billings will also become less significant overtime once Compute@Edge and Security become more signifant to top line. Something totally missing in RJ& #39;s report. And we are already seeing a pivot in that direction.
$FSLY I added significantly to my position today. I continue to hold my long sizable positions in $ARWR $AFMD and $ADAP. Feel free to share your thoughts. Always do your own DD. This thread is not an investment advise. I do not get paid to put this info in public.
$FSLY Q4
$FSLY Q1
$FSLY Q2 (only Apr data so far)
