Well, the elections in 10 days just got a bit more exciting...

An 11pt CON lead would mean a net GAIN of seats for the Tories, and an utterly dire result for Labour.

A 3pt CON lead would mean massive Labour gains across the country, with 10& #39;s of councils changing hands
Of course, the figure will most likely be somewhere between the 2, unless something major happens in the next few days.

I estimate the crucial figure to be a 9.7% CON lead - anything more = CON gains, anything less = LAB gains, though lots more factors at play on a local level!
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