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@ucas_online has published its report on higher education #AdmissionsReform ( https://www.ucas.com/about-us/news-and-key-documents/reforming-admissions)">https://www.ucas.com/about-us/... and, as I forecast, has opted for a model of PQO as its preferred route. https://twitter.com/JohnnySRich/status/1382352608094994432">https://twitter.com/JohnnySRi...
A thread... 1/26
A thread... 1/26
You have got to admire @ucas_online’s openness to reform and their resistance to having ill-considered changes thrust upon them by DfE or others who might get it into their heads that they have the authority to do so. (They don& #39;t – within the law as it currently stands.)
2/26
2/26
In the accompanying press release @clareucas cites "unconditional offers and the use of the predicted grades" as the two "well documented challenges with the current system".
So, presumably, UCAS& #39;s proposed PQO-style reform solves these challenges?
3/26
So, presumably, UCAS& #39;s proposed PQO-style reform solves these challenges?
3/26
Well, HEIs themselves (well, @UniversitiesUK) have already in effect agreed *conditional* unconditional offers shouldn& #39;t be used in future.
https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/news/Pages/Universities-UK-publishes-recommendations-for-reforms-to-make-university-admissions-fairer-and-more-transparent.aspx
(Now">https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/news/Page... why was that so hard? [sigh] Never mind.)
BTW other unconditional offers often have good reasons.
4/26
https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/news/Pages/Universities-UK-publishes-recommendations-for-reforms-to-make-university-admissions-fairer-and-more-transparent.aspx
(Now">https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/news/Page... why was that so hard? [sigh] Never mind.)
BTW other unconditional offers often have good reasons.
4/26
So at least PQO will get rid of predicted grades, right? Not entirely, as students will still want (and even need) them in order to know where to apply where they stand a realistic chance of getting a place.
5/26
5/26
Most of the "challenges" of predicted grades will persist, but instead of the supposed damage being perpetrated by universities making choices based on predictions, it& #39;ll be less transparent – self-imposed exclusion by students or under & #39;guidance& #39; by teachers, parents, etc.
6/26
6/26
Let& #39;s not forget that there is a large body of extremely expert and well-evidenced opinion ( @markcorver – honk!) that suggests predicted grades aren& #39;t such a problem after all. https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/04/22/mark-corver-predicted-grades-and-university-admissions/
7/26">https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/04/2...
7/26">https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/04/2...
Indeed, predicted grades might be seen as at least as good a measure of a student& #39;s potential as the grading of actual summative A-level exams which are fuzzily accurate at best and in any case aim to measure performance on a particular day. https://wonkhe.com/blogs/build-back-higher-regulation/">https://wonkhe.com/blogs/bui...
8/26
8/26
PQO would up the stakes of these single-day measures of performance effectively turning A level grades (even high ones) into a pass or fail at acceptance, largely without context.
9/26
9/26
Of course, HEIs could still apply contextual algorithms, but in a compressed post-qualification process would have less time to consider the individual& #39;s particular circumstance and make the fine judgements necessary.
10/26
10/26
Besides, these aren& #39;t the real problems of the current admissions system (which, to be honest, could be far worse).
The real problem is that the system doesn& #39;t promote optimal matching of students, courses and institutions through informed decision-making on both sides.
11/26
The real problem is that the system doesn& #39;t promote optimal matching of students, courses and institutions through informed decision-making on both sides.
11/26
What students need is a steady process of examining options, gaining understanding, and making choices free from undue pressures.
12/26
12/26
On the university side, the best matches are served by a rounded understanding of the applicant, their potential, their motivations, their background and circumstances.
13/26
13/26
The current system is at its worst during Clearing where everything I& #39;ve described above disintegrates into a mad melée to find and fill places.
14/26
14/26
Shocker: There& #39;s a clear correlation between students going through clearing and those who drop out.
(Ok, I know...
***Correlation is not causation***
...but it& #39;s not a stretch to suggest that when people make choices in haste they make less good ones.)
15/26
(Ok, I know...
***Correlation is not causation***
...but it& #39;s not a stretch to suggest that when people make choices in haste they make less good ones.)
15/26
The promotion of sub-optimal choices is the real problem with the current university #admissions process – not unconditional offers or predicted grade.
https://johnnyrich.com/university-admissions-whats-the-real-problem/
16/26">https://johnnyrich.com/universit...
https://johnnyrich.com/university-admissions-whats-the-real-problem/
16/26">https://johnnyrich.com/universit...
And who does this problem afflict worst? Yes, you guessed...
Disadvantaged students are less likely to have access to good careers IAG in their school/college, are less likely to have friends/family who know about uni entrance, and are more likely to use Clearing.
17/26
Disadvantaged students are less likely to have access to good careers IAG in their school/college, are less likely to have friends/family who know about uni entrance, and are more likely to use Clearing.
17/26
So surely UCAS& #39;s PQO plan will solve this problem at least and will do away with Clearing?
Nope. It "retains Clearing" because unis would "require" it. That& #39;s a fair comment and a good reason why UCAS& #39;s model has at least one advantage over DfE& #39;s: it& #39;s actually workable.
18/26
Nope. It "retains Clearing" because unis would "require" it. That& #39;s a fair comment and a good reason why UCAS& #39;s model has at least one advantage over DfE& #39;s: it& #39;s actually workable.
18/26
But even if UCAS has worked out how to drop Clearing from their PQO process, it wouldn& #39;t really have disappeared, but rather expanded.
Rather than *no one* being in Clearing, *everyone* would be – with all the attendant bad choices.
19/26
Rather than *no one* being in Clearing, *everyone* would be – with all the attendant bad choices.
19/26
I know the idea of PQO is that all the decision-making goes on before exams, but behaviourally, that& #39;s not how choices work. Most people only make the hard choices when the chips are actually down. Decisions people may come to regret will be compressed into post-exam fever.
20/26
20/26
One of the invisible tricks of the current system is to ease applicants along a conveyor belt towards a decision, options narrowing until, for most people, the choice is almost made for them. (I& #39;m not saying it& #39;s perfect.)
21/26
21/26
I& #39;m all for reforming #HEadmissions – the system is flawed – but just because it should change that definitely does not mean that any change constitutes an improvement.
22/26
22/26
The #FairAccessCoalition proposed an excellent set of principles to test whether changes are for the better or for the worse: https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/03/22/the-fair-access-coalition-10-requirements-for-a-fair-admissions-process/">https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/03/2...
23/26
23/26
The current system has withstood 50 years of changes in HE, adapting and evolving. We throw that away for an untried overhaul at our peril. It& #39;s likely to cause greater harms through unintended consequences that those caused by the problems it seeks to solve.
24/26
24/26
I wholeheartedly recommend the thoughts of former UCAS chief @MaryCurnockCook (who, let& #39;s face it, really know her stuff on this topic) on the need for caution and incremental change (courtesy, like so much else in this thread, of @HEPI_news): https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/04/09/reflections-ten-years-on-from-the-last-pqa-review/
25/26">https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/04/0...
25/26">https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/04/0...
