Exciting round 8 games in the #FIDECandidates - here& #39;s my latest predictions, unsurprisingly Caruana& #39;s chances have jumped!
Predictions after round 9 - Caruana and Nepo roughly neck-and-neck, Giri& #39;s chances have increased to 5%. #FIDECandidates
Predictions after round 10 - Nepo a very clear favourite after today& #39;s win, but still some chances for others to catch him. #FIDECandidates
Predictions after round 11 - Nepo& #39;s winning chances increase still further, while Caruana& #39;s decrease. Giri reaches 10% as MVL falls to 3%. #FIDECandidates
Predictions after round 12 - Giri and MVL still have some chances of winning, but it& #39;s looking more and more likely that Nepo will take it. #FIDECandidates
As there are only 5 key games left, it& #39;s possible to do this deterministically now, which makes it much easier to flex the assumptions. Let me know if there are any scenarios you& #39;re interested in.
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