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1/ To all the Afghanistan Watchers I follow and follow me: It& #39;s hard not to waver between pull out/stay in if you& #39;ve been lucky enough to work this issue since before 9/11. Many make a compelling case (like @BRRubin) that the bloodshed must simply stop. Hard to argue with that https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1381993140001898500">https://twitter.com/biannagol...
2/ But will pulling out lead to less bloodshed, or will it inevitably devolve into the Afghanistan of the early 90s post-Najibullah?
3/ What are U.S interests in Afghanistan? A simple direct question, but one I think we& #39;ve lost sight of as time has elapsed and fighting continues.
It& #39;s pretty clear the Taliban sees the establishment of the Emirate as the only end state acceptable. What does that mean for the U.S.?
5/ At one time immediately post-9/11 there was a naive thought among those who should have known better that Afghanistan would be the Switzerland of Central Asia. That became the "Turkey of Central Asia" around the time of Neuman/Wood
6/ But perhaps the most realistic was Eikenberry saying an end state like Bangladesh is the best we could hope for. Somewhat stable quasi-democracy with a "functionally corrupt" (love that expression) government
7/ That won& #39;t happen if the Taliban rules. They might care about foreign aid, but from everything that we see from their statements, it matters far less than the "correct" form of government.
8/ And what of the region? I believe the China "threat" is overblown (yes, a challenge but let& #39;s be cautious before we recreate the "10 foot tall Soviet Infantryman" of the Cold War. But Iran and Pakistan share borders and water resources, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is its own problem
