If you’re interested in geopolitical+tech risks, read @inafried @axios on #Taiwan #story0">https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-login-6801338c-9668-467e-b983-d74d182b5535.html?chunk=0&utm_campaign=axios_app #story0">https://www.axios.com/newslette...

Time to update/revisit my @medium piece from Aug 2020 on the 3 Chinas on a collision course >> https://link.medium.com/qxQQBl73lfb ">https://link.medium.com/qxQQBl73l... #China #Taiwan #HongKong

@jordanschnyc’s ChinaTalk newsletter highlights the very real economic security risk to the US of its nearly fabless #semiconductor strategy. https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/labs-over-fabs-risc-vs-promise?">https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/labs-ov... #Taiwan

@Noahpinion’s Apr 7 @SubstackInc connects more dots on #Taiwan as a central thorn in the US China competition https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-great-protest-wave?">https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-gre...

@Noahpinion links to the incoming US chief of its Indo Pacific command’s thunderous statement that China’s threat of an invasion of #Taiwan is “closer than most think”. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/23/taiwan-china-threat-admiral-john-aquilino">https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

I posited in a Sep 2020 piece that #China is in a hastened state of societal sickness. This should worry US policymakers and chiefly @SecBlinken the most. https://link.medium.com/S0964vndmfb ">https://link.medium.com/S0964vndm...

#perspectiveandcontext re #China & US current cold war: if @JoeBiden is able to guide https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> out of #COVID19 into a significant economic boom, https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">will work hard to weaken it&force https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">to defend #Taiwan. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">fought wars to protect its access to key materials, semiconductors > oil in 21.

I’m bullish re https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> b/c #XiJinping’s #China =colossus w/ clay feet: weak demography, near 0 ability to attract talent, middle class emigrating by millions. This also makes Xi desperate&his model is #Putin, champion of asymmetric conflict. How would https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">react to blockade of #Taiwan?

A successful https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> pushback to a Chinese blockade rests on alliances w/ India, South Korea and Japan IMO. Duterte cannot be counted on&Malaysia/Indonesia seem uneasy to ally againsg China. @SecBlinken will surely work hard to revive https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">’s close ties in the region.

The rumblings of war in the region between the US and #China remind me of an extremely prescient @TheAtlantic piece from 2005 by Robert D. Kaplan https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts"> https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/06/how-we-would-fight-china/303959/">https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/...

Bookending this thread, a must-read by @axios @BethanyAllenEbr on #China’s ploy to draw global lines re its repression of #Uyghurs. https://www.axios.com/global-capitalism-china-repression-uyghurs-ce212d30-d921-431b-8995-5e25021445d0.html?">https://www.axios.com/global-ca...