AB doubling time is 2.5 weeks.
It seems to be über-exponentialhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">the doubling time shortens with time.

At this rate we will have:
Nov 11, 1000+ daily new cases
Nov 28, 2000+ daily new cases
Dec 15, 4000+ daily new cases
and so on.

Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.
1/

It& #39;s too late for soft measures.
We need strong decisive measures + $$ support for businesses and people ASAP, in order to substantially *reduce the scale* of the upcoming disaster.

It takes 3-4 weeks from the shutdown date till the peak in cases and hospitalizations.

2/

If we shut down today, we will still reach at least 1600-2000 daily new cases, before numbers start to decrease.

If we shut down on Nov 15, we will reach 3000+ daily new cases before numbers start to decrease.

Either we control the virus, or the virus controls us.

3/

Now the virus controls us.

4/

The cocktail of measures that worked (turned exp. growth into exp. decrease) in Western jurisdictions:

- quarantine of all incoming travellers / travel rstrxns
- shut down *with financial support for businesses and people*
- support for marginalized/vulnerable groups

5/

Extra ingredient: Acknowledging that #COVIDisAirborne
- this helped Victoria (Australia) to quench the last COVID transmissions.

6/