I guess we have to talk about this:

• SCOTUS is scheduled to hear oral argument on 11/10

• It is almost certain that ACB will be on the Court by then

• We do not know when the Court will issue a decision or what it will decide, let& #39;s talk about the uncertainty – a thread https://twitter.com/mattbc/status/1320149115284688896">https://twitter.com/mattbc/st...

We don& #39;t know:

what SCOTUS will decide; when SCOTUS will decide it; who will control the White House come January 20th, who will control the Senate.

There are a lot of unknowns, a lot of uncertainty... there& #39;s a lot.

But we do know that it& #39;s very unlikely that SCOTUS will decide the ACA case before 1/20

How do we know that?

For each case SCOTUS has decided up until now, we know the date they heard the case & the date they issued an opinion.

This lets scholars do all sorts of interesting computations.

Here& #39;s a @SCOTUSblog post looking at this sort of aggregate data: https://www.scotusblog.com/2018/05/empirical-scotus-out-of-steam-or-out-of-time/">https://www.scotusblog.com/2018/05/e...

More interestingly for us, is the time it takes to decide "big cases" - they tend to take awhile.

https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3799&context=dlj">https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewc...

So, essentially, what I& #39;m saying is: it& #39;s unlike the Court destroys the ACA before January 20th. So we have to win the fucking election. We have to. We must.

Because then a President Biden can work with a Democratic Congress to save the ACA.