If there hadn&
#39;t been a (not actually all that large!) polling error in 2016, you can imagine the conventional wisdom being *incredibly* certain right now that Trump was going to lose, even more so than four years ago.
Are people overcompensating in the other direction? Probably a bit. But here&
#39;s the thing. Unless you&
#39;re interested in gambling/investing or forecast calibration, I&
#39;d argue that say a 10 or 15% chance of Trump winning isn&
#39;t that different from say a 35% chance in practical terms.
On the other hand, a 10 or 15% chance is *really* different than 0%, both mathematically (1 in 8 is a lot different than 1 in ∞) and practically. So if people&
#39;s takeaway is that Trump still has a meaningful chance, that&
#39;s the right takeaway.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.