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On 9/23, Indiana& #39;s @GovHolcomb lifted nearly all COVID19 restrictions
https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/gov-eric-holcomb-lifts-almost-all-covid-19-restrictions
This">https://www.wfyi.org/news/arti... struck me and other public health folks as dangerous
A month later, how& #39;s it gone?
Pretty badly. Like really badly.
Don& #39;t take my word for it.
Let& #39;s look at data!
Thread
https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/gov-eric-holcomb-lifts-almost-all-covid-19-restrictions
This">https://www.wfyi.org/news/arti... struck me and other public health folks as dangerous
A month later, how& #39;s it gone?
Pretty badly. Like really badly.
Don& #39;t take my word for it.
Let& #39;s look at data!
Thread
First, let’s look at Infections over past 2 months
All numbers 7-day moving avg from @COVID19Tracking
Between August 1 and September 23, cases fluctuating between 700-900 per day
Restrictions lifted 9/23
Infections start to take off by Oct 1
By 10/19, over 1800 cases per day
All numbers 7-day moving avg from @COVID19Tracking
Between August 1 and September 23, cases fluctuating between 700-900 per day
Restrictions lifted 9/23
Infections start to take off by Oct 1
By 10/19, over 1800 cases per day
Test positivity was around 9% on 9/23
Today? Around 18%
Meaning Indiana missing way more cases now than they were a month ago
So identified infections AND missed infections way up
Ah you say, but what about hospitalizations?
Isn& #39;t that what matters?
3/n
Today? Around 18%
Meaning Indiana missing way more cases now than they were a month ago
So identified infections AND missed infections way up
Ah you say, but what about hospitalizations?
Isn& #39;t that what matters?
3/n
Actually, infections matter too.
But, let’s look at hospitalizations
There were about 750 people hospitalized in Indiana on 9/23.
Today, its 1350
hospitalizations bouncing around from 12 to15 per 100K during Aug/Sept.
Around October 5, it breaks free and starts climbing
But, let’s look at hospitalizations
There were about 750 people hospitalized in Indiana on 9/23.
Today, its 1350
hospitalizations bouncing around from 12 to15 per 100K during Aug/Sept.
Around October 5, it breaks free and starts climbing
OK fine, but what about deaths?
During much of September, between 8 and 11 people died daily in Indiana from COVID
Now, number has more than doubled to 24 deaths per day
Deaths bouncing around -- but really breaks out around October 8 or 10
Graph
During much of September, between 8 and 11 people died daily in Indiana from COVID
Now, number has more than doubled to 24 deaths per day
Deaths bouncing around -- but really breaks out around October 8 or 10
Graph
So this strategy of open everything up is not going particularly well
Cases have more than doubled
Hospitalizations have doubled
Deaths have doubled
Obviously, we can& #39;t be sure its because of loosening of restrictions
But timing sure looks like it
6/7
Cases have more than doubled
Hospitalizations have doubled
Deaths have doubled
Obviously, we can& #39;t be sure its because of loosening of restrictions
But timing sure looks like it
6/7
