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COVID-19 and seasonality: A thread.
So, we& #39;re entering the typical season for respiratory viruses in the middle of a respiratory virus pandemic, which means we& #39;re going to get lots of explanations that feel intuitive.
Be careful with those. Lets talk flu... 1/8
#epitwitter
So, we& #39;re entering the typical season for respiratory viruses in the middle of a respiratory virus pandemic, which means we& #39;re going to get lots of explanations that feel intuitive.
Be careful with those. Lets talk flu... 1/8
#epitwitter
The first epidemiology projects I worked on were focused on influenza seasonality - something that was already well studied at the time. My very first paper? A review of the proposed casual mechanisms for seasonality. If you really want to read it: https://jvi.asm.org/content/81/11/5429
2/8">https://jvi.asm.org/content/8...
2/8">https://jvi.asm.org/content/8...
Epidemiology is *very* good at mathematically representing seasonality - we can make viral transmission parameters go up and down in nice, seasonal patterns, and get these patterns to fit the data.
This is called "seasonal forcing".
3/8
This is called "seasonal forcing".
3/8
The tricky bit is, unlike a lot of modeling parameters, this one isn& #39;t liked to a causal mechanism. "Beta goes up sometimes, and down other times". We have *lots* of "Just So" stories as to why.
4/8
4/8
It& #39;s indoor crowding and heating. It& #39;s changes in relative humidity and ambient temperature. It& #39;s immune suppression due to reduced Vitamin D. It& #39;s the seasonal dynamics of schools.
A lot of these feel right. None of them are a comprehensive explanation.
5/8
A lot of these feel right. None of them are a comprehensive explanation.
5/8
Now we& #39;re not sure if COVID-19 will be seasonal. There& #39;s evidence ( @maiamajumder ) that it& #39;s not temperature dependent. That doesn& #39;t mean it isn& #39;t seasonal.
The pessimist in me says it probably is.
6/8
The pessimist in me says it probably is.
6/8
What this means is there will be a lot of intuitive feeling articles about how the seasonality of COVID-19 is driven by X, so we clearly need to do Y.
These will make sense. They will feel right
7/8
These will make sense. They will feel right
7/8
What they actually are is very strong causal arguments that we& #39;re not even all that secure in making for much, much better understood diseases.
Apply the appropriate amount of skepticism. Especially when they come paired with easy policy recommendations.
~fin~
Apply the appropriate amount of skepticism. Especially when they come paired with easy policy recommendations.
~fin~
