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. @FatEmperor
Ivor. Some of my own data analysis on Ireland in the following thread.
The cumulative Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has dropped away since it peaked at 7.3% (from 24th June to 1st August), falling to 3.9% today. 1/7
Ivor. Some of my own data analysis on Ireland in the following thread.
The cumulative Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has dropped away since it peaked at 7.3% (from 24th June to 1st August), falling to 3.9% today. 1/7
There are two possible explanations:
- Healthier people are getting ill & they have a higher survival rate, &/or,
- Massively increased testing is catching infections not associated with illness, which are therefore not really ‘cases’ in the true meaning of the word. 2/7
- Healthier people are getting ill & they have a higher survival rate, &/or,
- Massively increased testing is catching infections not associated with illness, which are therefore not really ‘cases’ in the true meaning of the word. 2/7
CFR after the initial outbreak (August to today):
104 deaths but 22,793 ‘cases’ = a fatality rate of 0.46%. Closer to an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). Most of these so-called ‘cases’ aren& #39;t cases, but infections without illness, which in most cases amounts to immunity 3/7
104 deaths but 22,793 ‘cases’ = a fatality rate of 0.46%. Closer to an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). Most of these so-called ‘cases’ aren& #39;t cases, but infections without illness, which in most cases amounts to immunity 3/7
Hospitals aren& #39;t under pressure. COVID-19 utilisation peaked around 5.9% in mid-April & is now around 1.7% (est. 15,000 total beds).
Utilisation of ICU surge capacity (374 units) was much higher, peaking at 43.8% in mid-April; now around 8.5% & growing slowly but steadily 4/7
Utilisation of ICU surge capacity (374 units) was much higher, peaking at 43.8% in mid-April; now around 8.5% & growing slowly but steadily 4/7
The double graph is screen-grabbed from Government’s website (data for each point is provided on them). Cumulating the data from the daily cases & deaths (left side) provides different results from those shown in the totals chart (right side) & not by a small amount. 5/7
The error is ~3,000 cases or ~6%. The difference is shown below; the error appears starting from April 11th. Same& #39;s true for the deaths data; the over-estimate is 69 or ~4%. The probability of both being over-estimated by 4-6% is small - suggests data manipulation. 6/7
All of the data is dubious. Deaths are being certified as COVID-19, whether ‘with’ or ‘from’ it (per WHO). It may be the same with hospitalisations & ICU. Patients could be there for other reasons, with a positive test, kept separate & wrongly counted as COVID-19 patients. 7/7
