Read on Twitter
this is to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but my sloppy estimate is that as of today the pfizer trial has accumulated 657,000 person-days of efficacy data. at the recent rate of confirmed cases nationwide, that would imply around 60-80 "events" to date
the event rate could be lower b/c trial participants are more cautious etc., or higher b/c the trial is trying to enroll in high-transmission areas. if it all cancels out, it seems like we& #39;re on course for the final-final event count of 164 by nov 6
call me crazy but i feel like this pfizer statement hints that they& #39;ve already blow through an interim analysis or two: "In the spirit of candor, we will share any ***conclusive*** readout (positive or negative) with the public as soon as practical"
https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla">https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-...
https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla">https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-...
many are saying this! https://twitter.com/JacobPlieth/status/1319657863137079297?s=20">https://twitter.com/JacobPlie...
Pfizer to me: https://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein/status/1321042662456205312">https://twitter.com/adamfeuer...
but...doesn’t this imply an infection rate much lower than than the national average? This may drag on 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥴" title="Woozy face" aria-label="Emoji: Woozy face">
lol https://twitter.com/ZacharyBrennan/status/1321074201730686978">https://twitter.com/ZacharyBr...
messing around with the ol& #39; spreadsheet, through today, at national-avg case rates, the PFE trial should have seen:
* 85 cases if the vaccine were 100% effective
* 127 cases if 50% effective
* 170 cases if 0% effective
* 85 cases if the vaccine were 100% effective
* 127 cases if 50% effective
* 170 cases if 0% effective
but apparently they& #39;re at <32? if so, then the accrual of "events" is running something like 3-4x slower than the national average
just because i was curious...let& #39;s say the infection rate in the placebo group is just permanently 7x lower than the national average (cautious people etc.). and let& #39;s say the vaccine is exactly as effective as it needs to be to hit the primary endpoint (52.3%). that would imply>
that 18 events had occurred through today, as opposed to the 32 needed for the first interim analysis. here& #39;s the problem, though: by construction, in this scenario, there will never be a "conclusive" interim analysis. they& #39;d have to wait for trial completion. which would be...
around tax day 2021 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥴" title="Woozy face" aria-label="Emoji: Woozy face">
he’s done the modeling too https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1321265857624895490">https://twitter.com/acyn/stat...
Pfizer to me:
