As a growth mgr, I look for three ways to generate alpha (excess risk-adj returns):
1/ Acceleration
2/ Catalysts
3/ Non-consensus bets
Some pms say finding stocks that trade at less than intrinsic value generates alpha, but absent one of the above, stocks can stay cheap forever.
1/ Acceleration
2/ Catalysts
3/ Non-consensus bets
Some pms say finding stocks that trade at less than intrinsic value generates alpha, but absent one of the above, stocks can stay cheap forever.
2/Acceleration - If the market concludes that a 20% grower will now grow at 30% because of a new product, tech breakthrough or TAM expansion, the market will re-rate (increase the P/E of) the 20% grower to that of a 30% grower, and investors get both P/E expansion and higher EPS.
3/ Catalysts - Generally vols, earnings, new products, corp events like stock splits, M&A/buyouts, S&P inclusion, new govt policy, etc. These events don’t always add value, but often shine a spotlight on the difference between price (what you pay) and value (what it’s worth).
4/ Non-consensus bets - This requires research: knowing the drivers of a business, size of TAM and moat, and building a qtrly and multi-yr model. If you’re confident that consensus is wrong (vols, earnings, mkt share, margins), and actuals beat consensus, you can generate alpha.
5/ $TSLA has all three potential alpha generators: Vol growth is accelerating from 40% to 50%+ as Y goes global and TSLA launches CyTrk/Semi/M2.
Catalysts are always present but have been less potent of late since TSLA tends to run in front of catalysts, then sells on the news.
Catalysts are always present but have been less potent of late since TSLA tends to run in front of catalysts, then sells on the news.
6/ Non-consensus bets have been the most potent alpha generator because analysts covering $TSLA are lame, viewing TSLA more like an auto comp than as a disruptive tech force like $AAPL iPhone. If EV penetr’n continues to soar and TSLA EV share holds, this alpha source remains
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