Thread by @Woodguy55, There's a chance that Turris works out. Given the salary its a [...]

Woodguy

Woodguy55

There& #39;s a chance that Turris works out. Given the salary its a reasonable bet for him to outperform the contract.

I was hoping Holland would aim higher for 3C and this little thread spells it out a bit (1/

My biggest issue with the Turris signing is that its my opinion that stopping the bleeding of 5v5 goals from the 3rd is job #1 in fixing that line. This is why:(2/

5v5 Goal Share 19/20:
97 and/or 29i On (97-82) +15
Sheahan on w/o either 29/97 -20
None of those 3 on: (29-38) -9

So get the 3rd to line Even 5v5 or close that helps the overall goal share a ton. Check out how a 50% GF% 3rd line affects last year& #39;s results: (3/

How will Turris help the goal share? My fear is that he won& #39;t very much. He should be better than Sheahan& #39;s 30% goal share and -20 in 5v5 goals, but they really need the bleeding to stop. Here& #39;s Turris 5v5 Goal Share how how his teams did without him on the ice: (4/

After running uber-hot in 17/18 NSH he& #39;s been cold and not good. NSH was 53% and 55% in 5v5 Goal Share when he wasn& #39;t on the ice so its not like he was on a bad team.

His results were bad despite the quality of the team. (5/

That takes us to his line mate& #39;s results with and without him. Here& #39;s his most common fowards line mates goal share results with and without last year. They& #39;re all better without him other than Blackwell: (6/

Here& #39;s the same thing in 18/19. These are all small samples but way too much red going on and some seriously poor results (7/

Here& #39;s evolving-hockey& #39;s version of the With and Without stats, but aggregated for all line mates (including Dmen) and weighted by TOI together. GF% and xGF%(expected goals, which measures "flow of play") Its called "Relative Team Mate" (8/

Everyone just has better results with Turris, both in goals and expected goals for the last 2 seasons with NSH and his 2nd last season with OTT. That& #39;s a long time and a lot of results. Can he change? Don& #39;t know but it seems like a thin bet. (9/

And lastly he doesn& #39;t PK. That means that both Drai and RNH will probably keep taking regular shifts there along with playing PP1. In a compressed season like 20/21 I would have preferred that 3C be at least PK2 and PK1 would be best. Here& #39;s his PK TOI per season: (10/

Will Turris get better 5v5 GF% results than Sheahan? Almost impossible to be worse. Will he get up to 50% or better? Doubt it,he didn& #39;t get to 50% on NSH who are a much better 5v5 team.

I would have preferred that Holland aimed higher in this regard. I& #39;ll be cheering for him

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