1/n $TSLA is being muscled out of battery supplies by larger rivals. This could mean losses next year & @elonmusk knows it.

This is why he whined to @karaswisher on her podcast about how coverage of Battery Day was "sad".

Here& #39;s how Musk epically failed in supply management.

2/n @VWGroup boasted about having "secured" enough cell supply for 4.5m BEVs through 2023.

If each of its BEVs has a 70kWh pack, that& #39;s 315GWh of supply, or 75% of planned capacity at LGC + CATL, the world& #39;s 2 largest suppliers.

Aside from VW, 15 other major OEMs are in line.

3/n $TSLA then reportedly showed interest in buying a 10% stake in LG Chem& #39;s cell division, whose estimated value is $50bn (25x EV/EBITDA, which is fabulously "accretive" to $TSLA).

Funny, VW didn& #39;t have to buy a stake in LG Chem to secure its cell supply for 4.5m BEVs.

4/n I& #39;m thinking @elonmusk& #39;s hubris led to this mess:

1) Openly flog Panasonic for years
2) VW buys out global supply behind your back
3) No problem. Only $TSLA really knows batteries
4) Oops, look at all that Asian IP
5) Float plans of how easy lithium can be made w/ salt

5/n Nikkei XTech has a great take on $TSLA& #39;s sudden scramble on the battery front:

Cell costs aren& #39;t falling much anymore. No surprise, given nearly 50 new BEVs in 2021. Demand out-strips supply.

Who& #39;s a "genius" now, @elonmusk?

$TSLAQ