Club PB Baselines: A Thread

Having benefitted from other ppl& #39;s analysis I thought it time to share my own.

This thread shares my analysis of club data from the 19/20 season to determine which clubs deliver the highest PB baseline across PB leagues.

#footballindex
#ficommunity

Context: I don& #39;t have great player knowledge as my football consumption has dwindled into my 30s, but I& #39;ve long had an interest in tactics and previously blogged on tactical analysis.

This is an attempt to remove the individual and consider tactical systems as a source of PB.

To achieve this I& #39;ve taken 19/20 PB league club data for the baseline actions (exc. gls/ass, win/losses) included in PB scoring, averaged over 90mins.

This is averaged out for outfield players to suggest a 90min PB baseline.

GKs are excluded due to their different PB matrix.

The methodology isn& #39;t without limitations, including:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Aggregation is distorted by red cards
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Ignores changing match scenarios
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Assumptions on GK contribution

Nevertheless I still believe it to be sufficiently accurate as to be useful.

The tables below show the outfield PB baseline for each club in the PB leagues (19/20).

Also provided is an estimated PB average for each position inclusive of goals/assists, clean sheets and win/losses. This diverges from the baseline for teams that score/concede more.

This data is caveated by further assumptions made based on origin of goals/assists by position.

The clubs that generate the highest PB baselines are unsurprising - Man City, PSG, Bayern.

These clubs play possession-based yet penetrative football, and all are proactive without the ball.

All three teams provide an average of 110+, compared to a 98 club average of 78.5.

However the more interesting data lies in finding clubs that outperform or underperform their reputation or on-pitch performance.

Some standout results (to me anyway):
#4 Chelsea (104.0)
#6 Napoli (101.7)
#13 Leicester (93.5)
#15 Lyon (92.5)
#24 Man U (86.9)
#32 Arsenal (81.3)

I use this data to inform my opinion on how transfers affect PB potential, and which clubs& #39; players may be under/overvalued.

I& #39;m also looking at aggregating positional averages to determine the most valuable positions by club (eg: FB for Leicester).

This will follow in time...

As always, no data should be relied on 100% to form an opinion, but it may offer a helpful perspective.

If you would like the xlsx DM me your email.

I& #39;ll now go back to leaching off of others much smarter than me...

End of thread