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9 #M4A co-sponsors vacating safe D seats.
7/9 replacements favor #MedicareForAll:
Gabbard → Kahele
Lacy Clay → Bush
Serrano → Torres
Engel → Bowman
Lowey → Jones
Luján → L. Fernandez
Udall → Luján
2/9 favor public option:
Visclosky → Mrvan
Kennedy III → Auchincloss
7/9 replacements favor #MedicareForAll:
Gabbard → Kahele
Lacy Clay → Bush
Serrano → Torres
Engel → Bowman
Lowey → Jones
Luján → L. Fernandez
Udall → Luján
2/9 favor public option:
Visclosky → Mrvan
Kennedy III → Auchincloss
3 other incumbents who co-sponsor #MedicareForAll are under credible threat in the general. Re-election chances based on range of 4 models:
Susan Wild #PA07
70.1–98.5%
Matt Cartwright #PA08
58.3–90.8%
Jared Golden #ME02
59.8–78%
Gut feeling: all relatively safe.
Susan Wild #PA07
70.1–98.5%
Matt Cartwright #PA08
58.3–90.8%
Jared Golden #ME02
59.8–78%
Gut feeling: all relatively safe.
2 lost #MedicareForAll co-sponsors ( #IN01 + #MA04) have already been made up in safe D districts.
#IL03 Marie Newman defeated incumbent Dan Lipinski, who voted against ACA.
#CA53 Both candidates (Georgette Gómez and Sara Jacobs) support #M4A, while Susan Davis never signed.
#IL03 Marie Newman defeated incumbent Dan Lipinski, who voted against ACA.
#CA53 Both candidates (Georgette Gómez and Sara Jacobs) support #M4A, while Susan Davis never signed.
4 likely #MedicareForAll co-sponsors have good odds to unseat Republican incumbents. Election chances based on range of 4 models:
Kara Eastman #NE02
36.2–66.9%
Dana Balter #NY24
20.7–49.9%
Jon Hoadley #MI06
14.8–51%
Mike Siegel #TX10
7.8–55.7%
Kara Eastman #NE02
36.2–66.9%
Dana Balter #NY24
20.7–49.9%
Jon Hoadley #MI06
14.8–51%
Mike Siegel #TX10
7.8–55.7%
4 more likely #MedicareForAll co-sponsors have outside odds vs. Republican opponents. Election chances based on range of 4 models:
Donna Imam #TX31
1.7–57.5%
Julie Oliver #TX25
3.5–12%
Qasim Rashid #VA01
2.4–18.7
Ammar Campa-Najjar #CA50
2.7–22.1
Donna Imam #TX31
1.7–57.5%
Julie Oliver #TX25
3.5–12%
Qasim Rashid #VA01
2.4–18.7
Ammar Campa-Najjar #CA50
2.7–22.1
Candace Valenzuela has a good chance to defeat GOP incumbent in #TX24. She& #39;s running on public option, but I suspect she may sign #MedicareForAll.
Beth Doglio is the #M4A candidate in all-Democrat race for #WA10. Opponent& #39;s poll shows her 20 points back, but it& #39;s worth watching.
Beth Doglio is the #M4A candidate in all-Democrat race for #WA10. Opponent& #39;s poll shows her 20 points back, but it& #39;s worth watching.
Summary: #MedicareForAll is losing 2 co-sponsors in the House but gaining 2 in their place.
Good shot to add 4 more in the general. Outside shot at 8-10.
Also exciting to be replacing 3 meh #M4A backers with stronger advocates: Cori Bush, Mondaire Jones, and Jamaal Bowman.
Good shot to add 4 more in the general. Outside shot at 8-10.
Also exciting to be replacing 3 meh #M4A backers with stronger advocates: Cori Bush, Mondaire Jones, and Jamaal Bowman.
In the Senate, progressives have one realistic chance to make #MedicareForAll gains: Jessica Scarane ( @JessforDelaware) over Chris Coons.
Hers is the most urgent race at the federal level, with voting underway and finishing 9/15.
Donate or volunteer! https://www.jessfordelaware.com/ ">https://www.jessfordelaware.com/">...
Hers is the most urgent race at the federal level, with voting underway and finishing 9/15.
Donate or volunteer! https://www.jessfordelaware.com/ ">https://www.jessfordelaware.com/">...
