While one should always be alert to the possibility of systematic polling errors in either direction, this (alleging that polls are biased by 5-6 points against Trump because of shy Trump voters) is completely insane.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/jpmorgan-says-prepare-for-rising-chance-trump-wins-second-term">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...

There& #39;s not really much/any evidence of shy Trump voters at all. He only beat his polls by ~2 points in 2016, which can pretty easily be explained by not properly weighting by education + late-deciding voters breaking toward him.

Also worth noting that polls in the midterms showed no bias in either direction. Nor did Trump over-perform his polls in the 2016 primaries. Nor do nationalist parties have any history of outperforming their polls in a large sample of European elections. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/le-pen-is-in-a-much-deeper-hole-than-trump-ever-was/">https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...

Again, one must be aware of the possibility of correlated polling error *in either direction*. I can imagine reasons that polls would underestimate Trump again. Can also imagine some reasons they& #39;d underestimate Biden especially if pollsters are "fighting the last war" from 2016.

But usually, if someone is obsessed with shy Trump voters, it& #39;s a sign that they have a sophomoric understanding of the field. It& #39;s the sort of thing that makes you sound smart but doesn& #39;t really have much evidence behind it once you& #39;ve done the research.