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Our testing czar says our testing levels are "sufficient".
That declining testing is not a problem -- because cases are declining.
Seems reasonable, right?
Actually, no.
The data tells us a different, nuanced story.
Thread
Our testing czar says our testing levels are "sufficient".
That declining testing is not a problem -- because cases are declining.
Seems reasonable, right?
Actually, no.
The data tells us a different, nuanced story.
Thread
Let& #39;s start this story 2 weeks ago
There were 13 states in the "red zone" (>25 cases/100K/day).
They were states like AZ, SC, FL, etc.
In those states, testing has fallen 23%!
And % of test positives collectively flat at 13%
Meaning that they continue to miss many cases
There were 13 states in the "red zone" (>25 cases/100K/day).
They were states like AZ, SC, FL, etc.
In those states, testing has fallen 23%!
And % of test positives collectively flat at 13%
Meaning that they continue to miss many cases
But what if we examine the 13 states with lowest case incidence?
Like NY, MI, etc.
They have few cases. You& #39;d expect them to do few tests, right?
Actually, they& #39;re testing twice as many people (per capita) as hot zones
And in past 2 weeks, their testing has gone UP 4%
2/4
Like NY, MI, etc.
They have few cases. You& #39;d expect them to do few tests, right?
Actually, they& #39;re testing twice as many people (per capita) as hot zones
And in past 2 weeks, their testing has gone UP 4%
2/4
And in these low incidence states, percent of tests coming back positive is down to 2.0%
So what& #39;s going on? How do we interpret all this?
3/5
So what& #39;s going on? How do we interpret all this?
3/5
There are 5 key points:
1. More testing does not mean more cases
2. Hot zones in a "diagnostic" mode, testing only sick people.
3. They still have very high % positive. That means that they are still missing a vast majority of their cases
4/5
1. More testing does not mean more cases
2. Hot zones in a "diagnostic" mode, testing only sick people.
3. They still have very high % positive. That means that they are still missing a vast majority of their cases
4/5
4. Cool zones have switched to active search mode. Their % positive is low, falling. Missing very few infections.
5. We want to switch the nation to switch to active search mode.
Why? because diagnostic mode won& #39;t control the virus. Too much asymptomatic spread
5/6
5. We want to switch the nation to switch to active search mode.
Why? because diagnostic mode won& #39;t control the virus. Too much asymptomatic spread
5/6
