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|| MASSIVE DRAFT STRATEGY THREAD || We all know that the top-scoring RBs in PPR still score more than the top WRs, right? Let’s say you’re fully set on waiting on RB, and you’re doing some type of “ZeroRB/Modified ZeroRB” strategy with mass handcuffing. So, you’ve already passed
on most of the Bell Cow RBs. This study looks at Rounds 10-15 in a 12-team league using historical ADP data (Picks 109-180). I looked at RB/WR/TE, and charted the percent that finished as RB1-RB4, WR1-WR6, and TE1/TE2. For handcuffing to be a viable strategy, there has to be
a higher percentage of RBs that hit here compared to WRs. Or else, you might as well grab a high-scoring bell cow early on. And for those arguing that RB injuries open up a path late in the season for handcuffs… where are your RB points coming from the
first 10+ weeks to get you into the playoffs in the first place? So, let’s dive into the numbers.
Out of 49 RBs taken Rds 10-15 from 2017-2019:
6% finished as an RB1
4% finished as an RB2
18% finished as an RB3
18% finished as an RB4
Out of 49 RBs taken Rds 10-15 from 2017-2019:
6% finished as an RB1
4% finished as an RB2
18% finished as an RB3
18% finished as an RB4
Now, out of 61 WRs taken Rds 10-15 from 2017-2019:
3% finished as a WR1
10% finished as a WR2
18% finished as a WR3
15% finished as a WR4
11% finished as a WR5
7% finished as a WR6
So you’re chasing that RB1 season from your late-round…
3% finished as a WR1
10% finished as a WR2
18% finished as a WR3
15% finished as a WR4
11% finished as a WR5
7% finished as a WR6
So you’re chasing that RB1 season from your late-round…
handcuff. Who were those 3 RBs? James Conner (Le’Veon Bell holdout was a random event), James White (pass-catching specialists don’t last until round 10 anymore), and Duke Johnson (same blurb as White, but you can
actually get him late, still!). The 2 RB2s? Chubb and Aaron Jones (both 2018). Chubb won’t likely happen because top RB prospects go earlier than the 10th now. Aaron Jones was a good find in 2018. But overall, 10% of RBs in Rds 10-15 became an RB1/RB2. However,
13% of WRs from Rds 10-15 became a WR1/WR2. And, while 18% of RBs/WRs drafted here become an RB3/WR3, WR3s score way way more fantasy points than an RB3. And while 18% of RBs finish at RB4, compared to only 15% of WRs finishing WR4, an RB4 generally gets
you only 7-8 points a game, while a WR4 gets you around 10 points per game. So, grab RBs early. Don’t gamble by going WR early, forcing yourself to handcuff some RBs in the later rounds, when WR is a better play at that point. Now, I haven’t talked about the real stars
of these later rounds: the TEs. There have been 30 TEs drafted in Rounds 10-15 from 2017-2019… And a whopping 37% were TE1s. And not just the TE12 in case you’re wondering. 23% finished as the TE7 or higher during this time. Oh, and another 30% were TE2s. So 67% were relevant..
Want to dominate your draft? Go RB early, get your WRs mid-late, and grab 2-3 TEs late. Chances are in your favor that 1 of those TEs pans out and gets you top production towards the end of your draft. For those that produce public rankings, acknowledge the error ...
bars around TEs. The past 3 seasons, fantasy gamers have routinely been told to draft TEs in the early-mid rounds, but unless it’s Kelce/Kittle (maybe Andrews, maybe?), you may as well wait till those later rounds. Leave your questions/thoughts/concerns in the comments...
Tagging some accts I’ve had good interactions w/ recently that may enjoy reading this, just to get this NO handcuff 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎉" title="Partyknaller" aria-label="Emoji: Partyknaller"> started. @MyFantasyLeague @jmthrivept @aaronstew09 @CarpentierNFL @dynastymasters @Advantalytics @TheCustodianFF @Kyle_FFRecon @FFDopester @Matty_S2S @FF_Alex_R
