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Memphis/Shelby County Wkly Covid Update, Aug1
tl;dr
- record high 425 cases/day this wk
- record high 17% pos
- cases are growing 76% faster than testing
- let& #39;s set a goal to open schools after fall break
- shut it down & start over
- we have 3wks if we want school in Q2
1/
tl;dr
- record high 425 cases/day this wk
- record high 17% pos
- cases are growing 76% faster than testing
- let& #39;s set a goal to open schools after fall break
- shut it down & start over
- we have 3wks if we want school in Q2
1/
Here are total cases, 4 ways:
- since Phase 1/May 3
- since Phase 2/May 17
- Phase 2 thru June 30
- July 1 - Aug 1
- the thing to notice (this is an important & ancient principle in math) is that the more you zoom in, the more the curve looks like a line
- i& #39;ll unpack...
2/
- since Phase 1/May 3
- since Phase 2/May 17
- Phase 2 thru June 30
- July 1 - Aug 1
- the thing to notice (this is an important & ancient principle in math) is that the more you zoom in, the more the curve looks like a line
- i& #39;ll unpack...
2/
When you zoom out & look at cases since Phase 1 or 2, you can clearly see an upward curve, but it& #39;s hard to see precisely what& #39;s happening.
When you zoom in, it& #39;s clear that the curve bent upwards in late June into early July. That& #39;s acceleration.
But...
3/
When you zoom in, it& #39;s clear that the curve bent upwards in late June into early July. That& #39;s acceleration.
But...
3/
...then, after July 4, cases follow a straight line, which means constant growth. Not accelerating or decelerating, just holding steady.
That sounds good, right?
Well, not exactly.
You don& #39;t want to hold steady & drive into a trainwreck!
(Also, steady is misleading.)
4/
That sounds good, right?
Well, not exactly.
You don& #39;t want to hold steady & drive into a trainwreck!
(Also, steady is misleading.)
4/
As you can see here, we actually hit a record-high 7-day average of 425 cases/day today.
The 7-day growth rate has actually slowed, from 20% two wks ago to 16% today. But the math of that actually means more daily cases.
Is your mind blown?
I& #39;ll explain...
5/
The 7-day growth rate has actually slowed, from 20% two wks ago to 16% today. But the math of that actually means more daily cases.
Is your mind blown?
I& #39;ll explain...
5/
The 7-day avg, 7 days ago, was 356 cases/day.
A 16% growth from that gives us today& #39;s 425 cases/day.
Back on July 19, the 7-day growth rate was 20%.
But that took us from 268 to 394 daily cases.
When you have more cases, a lower growth rate can actually give you more cases.
6/
A 16% growth from that gives us today& #39;s 425 cases/day.
Back on July 19, the 7-day growth rate was 20%.
But that took us from 268 to 394 daily cases.
When you have more cases, a lower growth rate can actually give you more cases.
6/
And this is why mitigation efforts are simply not good enough. We have to do more than just fight the spread.
We have to stop the spread, period.
It& #39;s possible. Others have done it.
(NOTE: If Memphis were on this chart, we& #39;d be twice as high as the US avg.)
7/
We have to stop the spread, period.
It& #39;s possible. Others have done it.
(NOTE: If Memphis were on this chart, we& #39;d be twice as high as the US avg.)
7/
The above chart is set to cases per million.
- South Korea is under 1 daily case per 1M
- Italy& #39;s at 6/1M
- Germany, 11/1M
- UK, 13/1M
- The World Avg is 36/1M
...and the US is at 202/1M.
Memphis would be 450/1M!
Y& #39;all, please understand, this is a disaster.
8/
- South Korea is under 1 daily case per 1M
- Italy& #39;s at 6/1M
- Germany, 11/1M
- UK, 13/1M
- The World Avg is 36/1M
...and the US is at 202/1M.
Memphis would be 450/1M!
Y& #39;all, please understand, this is a disaster.
8/
Here we have daily cases per 100k, using the metrics set by Harvard& #39;s Global Health Institute & Center for Ethics.
*According to their research, anything over 25 daily cases per 100k means the spread is out of control & stay-at-home orders are necessary. We& #39;re at 45.
9/
*According to their research, anything over 25 daily cases per 100k means the spread is out of control & stay-at-home orders are necessary. We& #39;re at 45.
9/
Here we have new cases/wk & avg daily cases/wk
--> we& #39;re at record highs, y& #39;all, with 425 cases/day and 2973 total cases this wk
+19% over last wk
+34% over 4wks ago (the wk leading into July 4)
+449% over the wk we entered Phase 2
+512% over the wk we reopened
10/
--> we& #39;re at record highs, y& #39;all, with 425 cases/day and 2973 total cases this wk
+19% over last wk
+34% over 4wks ago (the wk leading into July 4)
+449% over the wk we entered Phase 2
+512% over the wk we reopened
10/
Now, here& #39;s the big problem...
- cases continue to grow faster than testing
- cases are growing 76% faster, in fact
- notice that the upward curve we talked about earlier happened right after case growth passed test growth
- that& #39;s bc testing is essential for containment
11/
- cases continue to grow faster than testing
- cases are growing 76% faster, in fact
- notice that the upward curve we talked about earlier happened right after case growth passed test growth
- that& #39;s bc testing is essential for containment
11/
As you can see here, we definitely ramped up testing in late June...but are actually down over July.
So don& #39;t let anyone tell you that cases are up bc testing is up. That has never been true, but now less than ever.
Let me repeat for emphasis: TESTING IS DOWN.
12/
So don& #39;t let anyone tell you that cases are up bc testing is up. That has never been true, but now less than ever.
Let me repeat for emphasis: TESTING IS DOWN.
12/
Compare case growth vs test growth...
1wk: +19% cases, +12% tests
4wks: +34% cases, -2% tests (wk leading into July 4)
Since Phase 2 (May 17): +449%, +53%
Since reopening (May 3): +512, +114%
This is a huge problem. And consider the implications...
13/
1wk: +19% cases, +12% tests
4wks: +34% cases, -2% tests (wk leading into July 4)
Since Phase 2 (May 17): +449%, +53%
Since reopening (May 3): +512, +114%
This is a huge problem. And consider the implications...
13/
When testing is limited, as it& #39;s been here, you have to limit who can get a test. And so, locally, only those with symptoms or close contact with a known positive can get tested.
The result: People w/o symptoms are walking around, unknowingly spreading the virus.
14/
The result: People w/o symptoms are walking around, unknowingly spreading the virus.
14/
There are only 3 ways to contain the virus.
1) Vaccine.
2) Test, Trace, Isolate.
3) Lockdown.
We don& #39;t have a vaccine, and we don& #39;t want to lockdown, so we have to get testing, tracing, & isolating fixed.
Unfortunately, July was a lost month.
We *will* have to shut down.
15/
1) Vaccine.
2) Test, Trace, Isolate.
3) Lockdown.
We don& #39;t have a vaccine, and we don& #39;t want to lockdown, so we have to get testing, tracing, & isolating fixed.
Unfortunately, July was a lost month.
We *will* have to shut down.
15/
Testing and positivity are connected in a way that& #39;s not being talked about...
- you want to do more testing to find more cases & isolate ppl before they spread the virus
- but you end up testing a bunch of ppl who are negative
- and so the more tests you do, %pos goes down
16/
- you want to do more testing to find more cases & isolate ppl before they spread the virus
- but you end up testing a bunch of ppl who are negative
- and so the more tests you do, %pos goes down
16/
Here& #39;s a chart that shows positivity rate & tests/day
- we& #39;re on the top left side, with just 2,500 tests/day, leading to 17%pos
- to get under 10%, we& #39;d have to do 4,300 tests/day
- to get under 5%, we& #39;d have to do 8,600/day
- to get under 3%, we& #39;d need almost 15,000/day
17/
- we& #39;re on the top left side, with just 2,500 tests/day, leading to 17%pos
- to get under 10%, we& #39;d have to do 4,300 tests/day
- to get under 5%, we& #39;d have to do 8,600/day
- to get under 3%, we& #39;d need almost 15,000/day
17/
It can be done...
- even the UK, which hit a high of 29%pos back in mid-April, got below 3% by the end of May and have been under 1% since late June
(Memphis is at 17%, y& #39;all! This is a disaster!)
18/
- even the UK, which hit a high of 29%pos back in mid-April, got below 3% by the end of May and have been under 1% since late June
(Memphis is at 17%, y& #39;all! This is a disaster!)
18/
Here& #39;s our positivity rate...
--> we just hit a record high 17%pos this wk
- i can& #39;t stress how bad this is
- anything over 10% means testing is missing a significant number of cases
- that means we don& #39;t have "eyes" on the spread
- and that means it& #39;s out of control
19/
--> we just hit a record high 17%pos this wk
- i can& #39;t stress how bad this is
- anything over 10% means testing is missing a significant number of cases
- that means we don& #39;t have "eyes" on the spread
- and that means it& #39;s out of control
19/
Let me explain what I mean by "eyes"...
- testing gives you data
- data give you the ability to see what& #39;s happening
- and that allows you to take targeted action
- lack of testing means you can& #39;t make targeted action
- this is the reason we had to shut down in March
20/
- testing gives you data
- data give you the ability to see what& #39;s happening
- and that allows you to take targeted action
- lack of testing means you can& #39;t make targeted action
- this is the reason we had to shut down in March
20/
I& #39;m sympathetic to our leaders bc only Congress can do what& #39;s needed, which is financial support to ppl, biz, & local govt.
But I& #39;m beyond frustrated with the lack of transparency and honesty and urgency from our leaders about our reality.
WE& #39;RE IN A CRISIS!
21/
But I& #39;m beyond frustrated with the lack of transparency and honesty and urgency from our leaders about our reality.
WE& #39;RE IN A CRISIS!
21/
Here& #39;s the thing: They know we& #39;re in a crisis.
They took down the Back to Biz website, with the dashboard that showed a red/yellow/green status for each reopening indicator...as soon as we hit RED for every indicator!
This is Trump-type stuff.
https://backtobusiness.memphistn.gov/
22/">https://backtobusiness.memphistn.gov/">...
They took down the Back to Biz website, with the dashboard that showed a red/yellow/green status for each reopening indicator...as soon as we hit RED for every indicator!
This is Trump-type stuff.
https://backtobusiness.memphistn.gov/
22/">https://backtobusiness.memphistn.gov/">...
Just this week, our leaders told us that cases have plateaued & positivity rates are dropping.
But it& #39;s just not true.
Just look at the data above!
23/
But it& #39;s just not true.
Just look at the data above!
23/
Now, I will say that one issue is that I& #39;m using the date of when they report cases & test data, whereas they are using the date the test was done. There are pros & cons of each.
Here& #39;s their chart, showing a "clear" downslope.
But let me explain the problem here...
24/
Here& #39;s their chart, showing a "clear" downslope.
But let me explain the problem here...
24/
When you backdate cases like this, your data is vulnerable to the delays in test processing we& #39;ve been experiencing.
And so what looks like a drop after July 15 is actually where we& #39;re just waiting for test results. (My friend got her results yesterday from July 9.)
25/
And so what looks like a drop after July 15 is actually where we& #39;re just waiting for test results. (My friend got her results yesterday from July 9.)
25/
We hit the 20,000th case this week.
I spoke with @TobySells from @MemphisFlyer on July 2.
At the time, we had just hit 10k cases the day before, and I projected that we would hit 20k by Aug 1.
My projection came within 3days.
https://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/data-driven/Content?oid=23331382
26/">https://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/d...
I spoke with @TobySells from @MemphisFlyer on July 2.
At the time, we had just hit 10k cases the day before, and I projected that we would hit 20k by Aug 1.
My projection came within 3days.
https://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/data-driven/Content?oid=23331382
26/">https://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/d...
At our current rate, this is what the future looks like.
May 31: 5k cases
July 1: 10k
July 29: 20k
Aug 30: 40k
Oct 1: 80k
Nov 2: 160k
Dec 4: 320k
27/
May 31: 5k cases
July 1: 10k
July 29: 20k
Aug 30: 40k
Oct 1: 80k
Nov 2: 160k
Dec 4: 320k
27/
What to do?
First, we need an honest assessment of our current situation. I think I& #39;ve done that here, but we need our leaders to do this.
Then, once we know where we are, we need to define where we& #39;re going. Set concrete metrics for success, goals we can all rally behind.
28/
First, we need an honest assessment of our current situation. I think I& #39;ve done that here, but we need our leaders to do this.
Then, once we know where we are, we need to define where we& #39;re going. Set concrete metrics for success, goals we can all rally behind.
28/
A big part of the problem right now is that we& #39;re just being given numbers, with no context, and being told it& #39;s not that bad.
Our leaders aren& #39;t saying it& #39;s bad, they& #39;re not showing urgency, and they& #39;re not giving us goals.
No wonder no one cares!
29/
Our leaders aren& #39;t saying it& #39;s bad, they& #39;re not showing urgency, and they& #39;re not giving us goals.
No wonder no one cares!
29/
Prioritize schools.
It& #39;s too late for Q1, so let& #39;s set a goal to reopen schools in-person after Fall Break.
That& #39;s Oct19, 11wks. It will take 8wks to contain the spread.
So if we want school in-person for Q2, then we have to shut down in the next 3wks.
Hit reset.
30/
It& #39;s too late for Q1, so let& #39;s set a goal to reopen schools in-person after Fall Break.
That& #39;s Oct19, 11wks. It will take 8wks to contain the spread.
So if we want school in-person for Q2, then we have to shut down in the next 3wks.
Hit reset.
30/
I wrote an op-ed about setting metrics for reopening schools.
https://dailymemphian.com/article/15774/opinion-when-will-schools-be-safe-to-reopen
31/">https://dailymemphian.com/article/1...
https://dailymemphian.com/article/15774/opinion-when-will-schools-be-safe-to-reopen
31/">https://dailymemphian.com/article/1...
We have a long way to go.
But as @ASlavitt reminds us, we& #39;re always just 8wks away from getting this under control.
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1287524301499965441
32/">https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/...
But as @ASlavitt reminds us, we& #39;re always just 8wks away from getting this under control.
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1287524301499965441
32/">https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/...
Come out tonight to Stand In Solidarity.
You can wear a mask and socially distance. Plus, it& #39;s outside, which is like 19 times safer.
https://twitter.com/jd_occasionally/status/1288520692401569798
33/">https://twitter.com/jd_occasi...
You can wear a mask and socially distance. Plus, it& #39;s outside, which is like 19 times safer.
https://twitter.com/jd_occasionally/status/1288520692401569798
33/">https://twitter.com/jd_occasi...
In case you want to know about me and why you should care about my analysis, I& #39;m a special educator/admin who has built a career on data, w/a grad degree in ethics (& studied biomedical ethics).
read more on me here...
http://firstresponses.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-memphisshelby-county-updates.html
34/">https://firstresponses.blogspot.com/2020/06/c...
read more on me here...
http://firstresponses.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-memphisshelby-county-updates.html
34/">https://firstresponses.blogspot.com/2020/06/c...
One last thing: If you appreciate my work on covid, please make a contribution to @LifeLineSuccess. I& #39;ve partnered w/ @ministerdbrown @mrsvjbrown for over 10yrs. I will vouch for their integrity and work.
https://charity.gofundme.com/o/en/campaign/blight-patrol-needs-new-mowers
35/35">https://charity.gofundme.com/o/en/camp...
https://charity.gofundme.com/o/en/campaign/blight-patrol-needs-new-mowers
35/35">https://charity.gofundme.com/o/en/camp...
