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Looking across our nation this Sunday, we have a very uneven picture
Within hot spots
Some states hitting a plateau. A few even turning down
While others still rising quickly.
And outside hot spots, signs of brewing trouble in some places, calmness elsewhere
A thread
Within hot spots
Some states hitting a plateau. A few even turning down
While others still rising quickly.
And outside hot spots, signs of brewing trouble in some places, calmness elsewhere
A thread
OK a diversion on methods:
1 Hot spots defined by @WhiteHouse Task Force: 100 new cases/100K pop/week
2 All #s 7-day moving averages
3 Comparisons with 2 weeks ago
4 Look at cases, tests, % positive, hospitalizations, deaths
Descriptions below obviously judgment calls
2/n
1 Hot spots defined by @WhiteHouse Task Force: 100 new cases/100K pop/week
2 All #s 7-day moving averages
3 Comparisons with 2 weeks ago
4 Look at cases, tests, % positive, hospitalizations, deaths
Descriptions below obviously judgment calls
2/n
So let’s talk about what hot spot states
First: the good news:
Arizona clearly heading in the right direction.
Cases down about 25% (vs 2 wks ago).
About 22% of tests are positive, down from 26%
TX also looks like it may be heading down
3/n
First: the good news:
Arizona clearly heading in the right direction.
Cases down about 25% (vs 2 wks ago).
About 22% of tests are positive, down from 26%
TX also looks like it may be heading down
3/n
Texas cases are down but a meager 1% from 2 wks prior
Test positivity down from 16% to 13%.
I see this as hopeful.
But both TX and AZ gains very fragile and could turn if current efforts not sustained and augmented
4/n
Test positivity down from 16% to 13%.
I see this as hopeful.
But both TX and AZ gains very fragile and could turn if current efforts not sustained and augmented
4/n
Some states hitting a HIGH plateau, not turning down yet
Florida, Louisiana, N&S Carolina, Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, Iowa, Utah
And MAY BE – if you squint at the data – Georgia. May be.
Some have put in smart policies recently (CA).
Others need to do a lot more
5/n
Florida, Louisiana, N&S Carolina, Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, Iowa, Utah
And MAY BE – if you squint at the data – Georgia. May be.
Some have put in smart policies recently (CA).
Others need to do a lot more
5/n
Then there are hot spot states that are still heading in the wrong direction
Mississippi, Alabama, Nevada, Tennessee, Idaho, Missouri
Whatever they& #39;re doing clearly not enough
In each, cases are up, percent of test positives are up. hospitalizations and deaths rising
6/8
Mississippi, Alabama, Nevada, Tennessee, Idaho, Missouri
Whatever they& #39;re doing clearly not enough
In each, cases are up, percent of test positives are up. hospitalizations and deaths rising
6/8
Next, there are non-hot-spot states heading there
And need to turn around
Wisconsin, ND, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana, Wyoming
Some of these are small states so don’t make national news.
But often have limited hospital capacity. Can ill afford to stretch their ICUs.
7/9
And need to turn around
Wisconsin, ND, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana, Wyoming
Some of these are small states so don’t make national news.
But often have limited hospital capacity. Can ill afford to stretch their ICUs.
7/9
Overall, across our nation, there are some rays of sunshine
States like NY, MI, MA, RI, WV, a few others
And its good to see terrifying exponential growth in big states like FL, TX, CA starting to plateau
But much of the country is still waist deep or neck deep in COVID
8/9
States like NY, MI, MA, RI, WV, a few others
And its good to see terrifying exponential growth in big states like FL, TX, CA starting to plateau
But much of the country is still waist deep or neck deep in COVID
8/9
And hospital capacity is stretched across much of our nation, but not breaking. Yet
But you can’t run ICUs at 150% of normal capacity forever
You start running out of PPEs, meds, people
Because Doctors, nurses are humans. They can’t keep going in crisis mode forever
9/10
But you can’t run ICUs at 150% of normal capacity forever
You start running out of PPEs, meds, people
Because Doctors, nurses are humans. They can’t keep going in crisis mode forever
9/10
And don& #39;t get me started on testing
Wholly inadequate in many parts of the country
But on this Sunday, as we reflect, its not all bad news
National picture: dark clouds. Heavy rains in many places
But also rays of sunshine
Evidence that as a country, we can do better
Fin
Wholly inadequate in many parts of the country
But on this Sunday, as we reflect, its not all bad news
National picture: dark clouds. Heavy rains in many places
But also rays of sunshine
Evidence that as a country, we can do better
Fin
