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...THREAD...
Seen quite a bit of Adam Thielen love on the timeline, with some good points both for and against him. One thing I& #39;ve noticed that I& #39;ve disagreed with is volume and efficiency expectations for Thielen in 2020. Agree/Disagree?
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Seen quite a bit of Adam Thielen love on the timeline, with some good points both for and against him. One thing I& #39;ve noticed that I& #39;ve disagreed with is volume and efficiency expectations for Thielen in 2020. Agree/Disagree?
1/ I& #39;m out on Cousins and Thielen for a multitude of reasons, but one that I haven& #39;t seen talked about...Cousins consistently ranks bottom 10 in aggressiveness (throws into 1-yard or less of separation), hence his high comp %. In 5 games w/o Diggs over the last 3 seasons...
2/ ...Thielen& #39;s 16 game pace is 106/1078/6.4 on 163 targets. That& #39;s IMMENSE volume but his efficiency goes from a career 9.3 y/tgt down to 6.6 (Yikes). In the past, sans Diggs Cousins has had Treadwell as his next best WR option...but now he has Justin Jefferson. When Defenses...
3/ ... treat Thielen as the #1 receiving threat, I don& #39;t expect Cousins to feed him with tight windows/double coverage. Instead, expect Irv Smith and Justin Jefferson to enjoy the lax coverage Thielen has seen with Diggs in town, and Thielen to move more into Diggs& #39; vacant...
4/... decoy role. Keep in mind, Thielen has always dominated market share when healthy, so Diggs& #39; departure doesn& #39;t necessarily mean more volume for Thielen. I& #39;m expecting 2020 Justin Jefferson and 2020 Irv Smith to easily eclipse 2019 Irv + 2019 Diggs target totals, leaving...
5/... similar target totals for Thielen but with much worse efficiency. Then factor in the fact that MIN had a 466/476 (49.4%/50.6%) pass/run split in 2019, and Thielen& #39;s fantasy prospects in 2020 and beyond are less than attractive...
6/... My 2020 projections for Adam Thielen? Assuming a full 16 games...
25% target share (125 targets on 500 attempts)
65% catch rate --> 81 Rec
7.5 y/t --> 938 yds (11.5 y/rec, a career worst)
TDs...??? Career 7.7% TD rate on receptions --> 6 TDs
81/938/6 season for Thielen!
25% target share (125 targets on 500 attempts)
65% catch rate --> 81 Rec
7.5 y/t --> 938 yds (11.5 y/rec, a career worst)
TDs...??? Career 7.7% TD rate on receptions --> 6 TDs
81/938/6 season for Thielen!
