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1. We don& #39;t yet know the true case fatality rate. (E.g.: if you catch it, how likely are you to die?)
Scientists agree that the CDC& #39;s #s are likely underestimates; but it& #39;s AT LEAST 4x more deadly than the flu, if infected; & will infect far more ppl. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121">https://jamanetwork.com/journals/...
Scientists agree that the CDC& #39;s #s are likely underestimates; but it& #39;s AT LEAST 4x more deadly than the flu, if infected; & will infect far more ppl. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121">https://jamanetwork.com/journals/...
2. We don& #39;t yet know *exactly* how it& #39;s transmitted. Definitely by droplets. But maybe aerosols? Maybe fomites?
----> For now: best practice in the non-healthcare setting is mask, distance, and hand-washing
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0522-cdc-updates-covid-transmission.html">https://www.cdc.gov/media/rel...
----> For now: best practice in the non-healthcare setting is mask, distance, and hand-washing
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0522-cdc-updates-covid-transmission.html">https://www.cdc.gov/media/rel...
3. We don& #39;t fully understand why & how it causes a wide variety of clinical syndromes. For example, although we have growing clinical knowledge, the new multi-inflammatory syndrome observed in kids is very much a black box. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMcp2009575">https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...
4. Relatedly, we don& #39;t know what works to treat #COVID19.
Remdesivir may decrease hospitalizations.
Proning may decrease intubations.
Hydroxycholoroquine WORSENS outcomes.
Plasma from recovered pts: Maybe.
That& #39;s all we& #39;ve got, folks. Still waiting on 100s of ongoing trials.
Remdesivir may decrease hospitalizations.
Proning may decrease intubations.
Hydroxycholoroquine WORSENS outcomes.
Plasma from recovered pts: Maybe.
That& #39;s all we& #39;ve got, folks. Still waiting on 100s of ongoing trials.
5. We are not totally sure about the efficacy of those home-made masks.
We know that masks work, period. But what kind of fabric masks work, for whom, at what distance? Still TBD.
(Wear them! But don& #39;t feel immune.)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7185834/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic...
We know that masks work, period. But what kind of fabric masks work, for whom, at what distance? Still TBD.
(Wear them! But don& #39;t feel immune.)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7185834/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic...
6. We don& #39;t yet know how long immunity lasts. Once you get it once, will you be immune for a month? A year? A lifetime? Will this be like the common cold, or like smallpox? We& #39;re hoping for the latter. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766097">https://jamanetwork.com/journals/...
7. We don& #39;t know how long people are infectious. https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/1263647206432702465">https://twitter.com/tmprowell...
8. And we of course don& #39;t yet know when/whether we& #39;ll have a safe and effective vaccine.
(But PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD once we have one, GET VACCINATED!) https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coronavirus-vaccine-trials-have-delivered-their-first-results-but-their-promise-is-still-unclear1/">https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/c...
(But PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD once we have one, GET VACCINATED!) https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coronavirus-vaccine-trials-have-delivered-their-first-results-but-their-promise-is-still-unclear1/">https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/c...
OK, now for a short list of things we DO know:
1. We know the virus& #39; genome. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001017">https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...
2. We know that to decrease transmission & deaths, we need a a combo of (a) Social distancing (b) Testing (c) Isolation & Contact Tracing of Sick People (d) Adequate PPE. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/study-contact-tracing-slowed-covid-19-spread-china">https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...
2. And if we can increase (b), (c), and (d) .... then (a) #SocialDistancing is not so necessary.
WITHOUT these standard #publichealth measures, we& #39;ll see new hot-spots emerge, watch infections & deaths balloon, & will be right back where we were in mid-March in the US.
WITHOUT these standard #publichealth measures, we& #39;ll see new hot-spots emerge, watch infections & deaths balloon, & will be right back where we were in mid-March in the US.
3. We also know that if you& #39;re close to someone who& #39;s infected, inside, for a period of time, you too have a high risk of infection.
And... 1 selfish person, who goes out & about when ill, can get a lot of other people really sick :( https://twitter.com/meganranney/status/1262859388383084544">https://twitter.com/meganrann...
And... 1 selfish person, who goes out & about when ill, can get a lot of other people really sick :( https://twitter.com/meganranney/status/1262859388383084544">https://twitter.com/meganrann...
4. Lastly, we know that underlying social & economic inequalities worsen disease. https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-coronavirus-and-the-interwoven-threads-of-inequality-and-health">https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-an...
(....that& #39;s essentially it, folks. That& #39;s what we KNOW about the virus, its transmission, and its prevention.)
So where does that leave us?
1) Keep doing & funding science.
2) Insist that state & federal gov& #39;ts increase testing so you can go back to work
3) Fund #Publichealth infrastructure
4) Until then... maintain masks & social distancing to keep yourself *and your community* safe
1) Keep doing & funding science.
2) Insist that state & federal gov& #39;ts increase testing so you can go back to work
3) Fund #Publichealth infrastructure
4) Until then... maintain masks & social distancing to keep yourself *and your community* safe
