These @youyanggu projections are interesting. If his model had to make a modal projection, it would be that the US will plateau somewhere near the recent total of ~1,300 deaths per day as restrictions are relaxed to the point where we get an R of ~1.

https://covid19-projections.com/ ">https://covid19-projections.com/">...

But look at the uncertainty! Many unknowns. It& #39;s not hard to imagine some parameters where we& #39;re down to "just" 300 deaths a day (or fewer) by mid-August! Or have bounced back to 3,000 (or more)!

IMO this reflects a well-designed model that accounts for real-world uncertainty.

Importantly also, there& #39;s less uncertainty in the very near term. That is, it& #39;s unlikely there& #39;s a huge spike or rapid decline by the end of this month. It& #39;s the accumulation over time. Deaths growing at 10% a week vs. shrinking at 10% makes a big difference over a few months.