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Last week when I teased that PA had a bellwether my plan was to create a thread on the concept of & #39;bellwethers& #39; and why I& #39;m not a huge fan, but tbh I don& #39;t have the time. So here& #39;s what were doing; I& #39;m going to lay out what I have and everyone can draw their own conclusions. 1/x
That piece of info that piqued my interest. In 2016, just two of PA& #39;s 15 largest cities voted for Donald Trump. Altoona, in traditionally conservative Blair County, and Millcreek Township outside Erie. 2/
Longtime followers know that I& #39;ve done a lot of canvassing work in suburbs similar to Millcreek around Pittsburgh. Places that are overwhelmingly white, middle class and tend to be very sensitive to the national political environment. "Swingy" 3/x
With that in mind, I looked back through my data and pulled the results for Gov, Sen, and Presidential elections in Millcreek going back to 1992. 4/
Let& #39;s focus on the results from the last 7 presidential elections. Over the last two decades Millcreek voted on average around 1.14% to the right of the state. Which, IMO is pretty impressive. 5/
Millcreek is also critical for carrying Erie County. Millcreek + the City of Erie make up over 50% of the county& #39;s two party vote. So, if you& #39;re winning in Millcreek, you& #39;re winning in Erie County and in places that look a lot like Erie Co, e.g. Bethel Park, Bensalem, Swatara. 6/
The lesson: As Millcreek goes, so goes similar vote rich suburbs in Pennsylvania. (Unless Tom Ridge is on the ballot) As a bonus, a gif of the 2 party Presidential results in Erie going back to 1992. 7/
And the individual maps 8/
Enjoy!! 9/9
Crap, I included the wrong 2004 map. Oh well.
