Thread by @MikeOtsuka, The high number of deaths of London bus drivers is of a [...]

The high number of deaths of London bus drivers is of a piece with other evidence that prolonged exposure in enclosed spaces to someone infected w/ coronavirus is unsafe. 2 metre social distancing won& #39;t make buses, the tube, classrooms, or shared offices safe. 1/10

First, here& #39;s the other evidence, from US CDC papers about a restaurant & a call centre & further studies involving a church, indoor sporting event, etc. 2/10 https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them">https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-...

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We...

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

It& #39;s alarming that the rate of coronavirus death among London bus drivers is 16 times the death rate of NHS workers. 3/10
https://www.ft.com/content/bae97166-891d-11ea-a01c-a28a3e3fbd33">https://www.ft.com/content/b...

Bus drivers also account for the vast majority of coronavirus deaths among all London transport workers: 28 of 37. 4/10
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/world/europe/coronavirus-london-buses.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/0...

This high death rate suggests that airborne coronavirus infection will be hard to avoid in journeys on public transport, or in other enclosed spaces where people remain for more than a brief period of time. 5/10

London bus drivers sit in enclosed cab, behind a plastic screen with holes

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">. They can also ventilate their cab by opening their window. Passengers don& #39;t generally sit or stand close to them for a prolonged period of time. 6/10

London bus drivers sit in enclosed cab, behind a plastic screen with holeshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=

. They can also ventilate their cab by opening their window. Passengers don& #39;t generally sit or stand close to them for a prolonged period of time. 6/10" title="London bus drivers sit in enclosed cab, behind a plastic screen with holeshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">. They can also ventilate their cab by opening their window. Passengers don& #39;t generally sit or stand close to them for a prolonged period of time. 6/10" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>

So their <2 metre exposure to an infected passenger will typically have been for a very brief period, when the passenger boards, taps the yellow circle & proceeds to a seat more than 2 metres away. 7/10

Brief exposures of <2 metres, plus prolonged exposure to the same air that passengers breath, were sufficient to give rise to a high rate of infection. This casts doubt on the efficacy of a policy of 2 metre social distancing on public transport. 8/10

And we already have other evidence (see 2/) that, if you& #39;re in the same (or connected via air conditioning) enclosed space as someone who is infected for an extended period of time, your risk of infection is high even if you& #39;re much more than 2 metres away. 9/10

So we& #39;ll need much more than 2 metre social distancing to make indoor spaces where we spend prolonged periods of time safe. This applies to public transport, workplaces, classrooms, restaurants, bars, cinemas & places of worship. 10/10

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