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This thread is very interesting, but it furthered my view that suppressing the epidemic with "test and trace" is a pipe dream. It would require a degree of competence on the part of the state and compliance on the part of the population that are not realistic in most countries. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1259178497320185856">https://twitter.com/balajis/s...
It can probably be part of the toolbox we use to slow down the epidemic after we lift the stay-at-home orders, but we& #39;re not going to suppress it like that and we& #39;re also not going to stay locked down until a vaccine or a treatment is widely available, so let& #39;s not pretend.
I know a lot of people think it& #39;s feasible in theory and they may even be right, but we don& #39;t live in a theoretical world, we live in the real world, where there are social/political/legal constraints that aren& #39;t going away just because you wish they did.
To be clear, I& #39;m not saying that if we let it rip, everything will quickly go back to normal. I know this isn& #39;t true, but since I& #39;m increasingly convinced we no longer have a choice, I prefer that to vastly increasing the power of the state for something that isn& #39;t going to work.
The problem is that, no matter how fancy the technological solutions you come up with are, they won& #39;t allow you to suppress the epidemic unless everyone uses them and complies. In China, this may be possible, but that& #39;s only because it& #39;s a police state.
People often cite South Korea as a counter-example, but I don& #39;t think what they& #39;re doing would fly in most Western countries and, since they started doing this early, it& #39;s actually much easier for them than it would be for us even if that weren& #39;t true. https://twitter.com/fredbauerblog/status/1258038064921956352">https://twitter.com/fredbauer...
Again, I don& #39;t say that people I like the herd immunity strategy or because I don& #39;t think it& #39;s going to suck massively, I say that because I& #39;m increasingly convinced we don& #39;t really have a choice and I don& #39;t want to vastly increase state power in the false hope it will save us.
