Read on Twitter
On @SquawkCNBC a few moments ago I told @andrewrsorkin I think it could be 2-3 years before we have a full return to something like normal. It seemed to come as a surprise.
Let me elaborate on how I see the outlook.
Let me elaborate on how I see the outlook.
Physical distancing can drive a decline in cases when rigorously enforced, and we are seeing that play out. But if those measures succeed, we& #39;re left with:
1) a lot of susceptible people
2) ongoing spread of the disease
And that means ongoing risk until vaccines arrive.
1) a lot of susceptible people
2) ongoing spread of the disease
And that means ongoing risk until vaccines arrive.
Vaccines will take a while. If we are fortunate and some of the current candidates prove effective, we& #39;ll know that by next Feb/March.
Then we need to ramp up production.
Then we need to administer widely.
Add another year+ (conservatively) for that. Maybe more.
Then we need to ramp up production.
Then we need to administer widely.
Add another year+ (conservatively) for that. Maybe more.
The risk will have to actively and aggressively managed for the 2-3 years until (
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤞" title="Crossed fingers" aria-label="Emoji: Crossed fingers">) everyone can get vaccinated.
What will that look like? Singapore provides some clues. They& #39;re handling this as well as anyone, and yet just triggered a lockdown after cases resurged.
What will that look like? Singapore provides some clues. They& #39;re handling this as well as anyone, and yet just triggered a lockdown after cases resurged.
Even once we& #39;ve gotten our house in order in the US, we will face risks of domestic spread flaring up, and of travelers bringing in new cases. So we won& #39;t be able to let our guard down.
I can& #39;t predict exactly what this will all look like, because we& #39;ll have to learn by doing.
I can& #39;t predict exactly what this will all look like, because we& #39;ll have to learn by doing.
But I& #39;d tentatively expect:
-Fewer large gatherings like sporting events
-Reductions in non-essential int& #39;l travel
-Workplace changes - more telework where viable, other adaptations where it isn& #39;t
-Etc
Won& #39;t just be govt-mandated; also voluntary changes to individual behavior.
-Fewer large gatherings like sporting events
-Reductions in non-essential int& #39;l travel
-Workplace changes - more telework where viable, other adaptations where it isn& #39;t
-Etc
Won& #39;t just be govt-mandated; also voluntary changes to individual behavior.
And the readiness to dial up more aggressive distancing measures as/when needed - and that will probably happen periodically.
Will arrival of new treatments mitigate this? Hopefully. But those only speed/improve recovery; you still need to limit spread.
Will arrival of new treatments mitigate this? Hopefully. But those only speed/improve recovery; you still need to limit spread.
Disruption is with us for a while. I& #39;m confident we will find ways to adapt. And as we learn more about this disease, we may find other/better ways to mitigate the disruption.
But we should also be acclimating to the idea that there& #39;s no rapid return to the status quo ante.
But we should also be acclimating to the idea that there& #39;s no rapid return to the status quo ante.
The name of the game for the next few years is not return-to-normal; it’s adaptation-to-new-normal. We do urgently need to restore oxygen to our economy. But doing so safely means adaptation and mitigation.
