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The market does not seem to get yet that Fed stimulus notwithstanding social distancing of some sort will continue till 2023
This practically means:
This practically means:
1)
All service capacity will be reduced 30% (see HK)
Restaurants, bars, events, stadiums
With attendant revenue and job losses
Upstream impact: interior decorators, contractors and furnishings.
Also: seafood farmers
All service capacity will be reduced 30% (see HK)
Restaurants, bars, events, stadiums
With attendant revenue and job losses
Upstream impact: interior decorators, contractors and furnishings.
Also: seafood farmers
2)
Travel demand reduced 50%
Airlines, cruises, taxi, bus, tours
Upstream impact: banks who finance above, engineering firms, heavy industries
Travel demand reduced 50%
Airlines, cruises, taxi, bus, tours
Upstream impact: banks who finance above, engineering firms, heavy industries
3)
Value added will be much reduced as people consume more at home;
eat, exercise and socialize without intermediaries; compare prices digitally.
Consume more digital than ‘things’.
Value added will be much reduced as people consume more at home;
eat, exercise and socialize without intermediaries; compare prices digitally.
Consume more digital than ‘things’.
4)
Profitable industries that implicitly require human contact will slowly lose relevance and value: consulting, colleges, self improvements.
No one pays full price for webinars.
Profitable industries that implicitly require human contact will slowly lose relevance and value: consulting, colleges, self improvements.
No one pays full price for webinars.
5)
Service jobs require some basic skill.
Unlike logistics/delivery jobs.
Permanent Loss of skills for a generation of young people
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👩🏻🎓" title="Woman student (light skin tone)" aria-label="Emoji: Woman student (light skin tone)">
Service jobs require some basic skill.
Unlike logistics/delivery jobs.
Permanent Loss of skills for a generation of young people
6)
Less optimism: less demand of ‘vice economy’ and resulting less income for “entrepreneurs”
Less optimism: less demand of ‘vice economy’ and resulting less income for “entrepreneurs”
7)
Above job losses compound loss of spending power to reduce capacity requirement (or jobs) in vicious circlehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⭕️" title="Heavy large circle" aria-label="Emoji: Heavy large circle">
Above job losses compound loss of spending power to reduce capacity requirement (or jobs) in vicious circle
8)
IG bragging becomes passé
The IG Influencer (if that ever counts as a profession) is dead.
IG bragging becomes passé
The IG Influencer (if that ever counts as a profession) is dead.
9)
Divorces spike and results in lower discretionary spending ability
Divorces spike and results in lower discretionary spending ability
10)
3 months is torture
3 years is ‘habit’
In short:
Bye bye consumption economy
3 months is torture
3 years is ‘habit’
In short:
Bye bye consumption economy
