looked back at 1st thing I wrote about COVID, in Jan. Headline "coronavirus will not be the next Black Death", which is true but kind of downplay-y. I *think* the piece itself sort of stands the test of time, but mainly by not making any predictions at all https://unherd.com/thepost/chinas-coronavirus-will-not-be-the-next-black-death/">https://unherd.com/thepost/c...

I& #39;m doing a kind of self-audit. I didn& #39;t predict the pandemic, which I forgive myself for because few did, but nor did I say "this has the potential to be completely terrible" until it was obvious that it would be terrible (March 3) https://unherd.com/2020/03/stop-looking-for-coronavirus-super-spreaders/.">https://unherd.com/2020/03/s... So maybe a C+ grade?

in spirit of this https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/

Basically">https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/1... I don& #39;t think I got anything terribly wrong, but nor do I think I was exactly leaping ahead of the curve