I& #39;m going to make a general comment about gambling that I think transpires to many other things in life.

Streaks happen. Both positive and negative and they happen in much larger magnitudes than we tend to think are possible. /1 https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1247738134521155590">https://twitter.com/twobitidi...

Correlated things may seem uncorrelated, selective memory lets us forget times we were "wrong" when we& #39;re usually right, and forget times we were "right" when we& #39;re usually wrong, the confidence shifts associated with our accuracy can improve or cloud judgement going forth. /2

At every stage in which I& #39;ve been "too correct" I fall into the same traps of overconfidence when I can& #39;t miss. At every stage in which I& #39;ve been "always wrong" I doubt myself, pass up opportunities, don& #39;t put my money where my mouth is and miss opportunities that come along. /3

I apologize for single you out Ryan but this was a perfect example of this fallacy- we& #39;ve had several people who were "ahead of the curve" pertaining to Covid. In January they were 6 weeks ahead of everyone else. In early February maybe this fell to 4 weeks, then 2, then 0 etc /4

I think each and every person who more accurately "saw the writing on the walls" made this become a part of their self-concept and got used to being the guy who sees things before other do. /5

Rather than focusing on the facts at hand (which initially they more accurately assessed and drew better conclusions than average) I think many people have gotten too caught up in the narrative of seeing something everyone else missed and allowing their judgement to be clouded /6