Read on Twitter
1/ Some of you may be wondering in light of the news about #Boris tonight, whether there is any data on ICU mortality rates. Hopefully this quick thread can combat some disinformation before it takes hold of the public consciousness. #getwellsoonboris
2/ There has been some slapdash reporting suggesting that the mortality rate for patients admitted to intensive care is 50%; this isn& #39;t correct and stems from misreading of published statistics. The more accurate answer is the more boring one; we don& #39;t really know for sure yet.
3/ The idea of a 50% mortality rate seems to come from a report by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre published on 27 March 2020, you can find it here: https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/03/27/Report-On-775-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19">https://www.icnarc.org/About/Lat...
4/ What the report found was:
- 775 patients were studied.
- Of those, 165 had left intensive care.
- Of those 165 "outcomes", 79 died, 86 lived i.e. 48%/52%.
The rest, and importantly, *the vast majority*, 610 people, were still in ICU, with an outcome to be determined.
- 775 patients were studied.
- Of those, 165 had left intensive care.
- Of those 165 "outcomes", 79 died, 86 lived i.e. 48%/52%.
The rest, and importantly, *the vast majority*, 610 people, were still in ICU, with an outcome to be determined.
5/ Given that, for the vast majority of people, the outcome is simply "we don& #39;t know"; it is not correct to say that 50% of people admitted to ICU will die- further outcomes could skew that statistic massively. It is at best lazy reporting and at worst actively misleading.
6/ Tim Crocker-Buque, an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine @LSHTM, stated that "To say that the mortality rate of ICU patients is 50% is misleading and may induce panic". https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-icnarc-report-on-the-first-reported-775-patients-critically-ill-with-covid-19/">https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-re...
7/ This clearly did not stop the Express or the Metro from actively ignoring this with their headlines; I expect more unhelpful headlines along the lines of "PM& #39;s life hangs in the balance" over the next few days.
8/ We are getting more data as each day goes by- there was a more recent report published 4 April 2020 - https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/04/04/Report-On-2249-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19
Findings:
-">https://www.icnarc.org/About/Lat... 2249 patients in ICU
- 346 deaths
- 344 discharged alive
Findings:
-">https://www.icnarc.org/About/Lat... 2249 patients in ICU
- 346 deaths
- 344 discharged alive
9/ Again, the majority of cases, nearly 70%, still remain "unknowns", but that pesky "half of all patients die" headline writes itself.
9/ Re the 4 April report, Prof Duncan Young of @UniofOxford reminds us that “We only know the outcome (alive/dead) for a small proportion of those admitted to an ICU, so we can’t necessarily generalise these findings to what might happen to those admitted to an ICU in the future"
9/ This is the important and dull point; the press saying the "PM& #39;s chances are 50/50" makes for easy headlines, but they are not helpful at a time of great national anxiety particularly when they are based on misconceptions.
10/ Thankfully, and I say this as no particular fan of Johnson& #39;s, his chances of surviving this may very well be much higher than that.
I ballsed up my numbering didn& #39;t I. Cock.
