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IHME& #39;s modeling for Alabama has been revised downward again from 5,500 deaths by August to about 923 deaths by August.
Here& #39;s an explanation of that model, why it changed, and why we shouldn& #39;t take this downward trend as an all-clear. https://www.alreporter.com/2020/04/06/behind-the-model-that-projected-5500-deaths-in-alabama-and-why-it-changed/">https://www.alreporter.com/2020/04/0...
Here& #39;s an explanation of that model, why it changed, and why we shouldn& #39;t take this downward trend as an all-clear. https://www.alreporter.com/2020/04/06/behind-the-model-that-projected-5500-deaths-in-alabama-and-why-it-changed/">https://www.alreporter.com/2020/04/0...
The updated modeling shows social-distancing is working, not that it was mistaken to project 5,000 or 7,000 people could have died.
Had we not acted, had behavior stayed the same, had we refused a stay-at-home order, that could have been the case. https://www.alreporter.com/2020/04/06/behind-the-model-that-projected-5500-deaths-in-alabama-and-why-it-changed/">https://www.alreporter.com/2020/04/0...
Had we not acted, had behavior stayed the same, had we refused a stay-at-home order, that could have been the case. https://www.alreporter.com/2020/04/06/behind-the-model-that-projected-5500-deaths-in-alabama-and-why-it-changed/">https://www.alreporter.com/2020/04/0...
There are also so many assumptions in this modeling. It was never intended as a prediction of the future. It is intended as a planning tool for policymakers and hospitals. It will change again as more data becomes available.
The modeling also assumes complete adherence to social distancing guidelines. And that those guidelines will remain in place until August.
If we try to return to normal too soon without a vaccine or without widespread testing, contact-tracing and targeted quarantine, the virus could resurge. https://www.alreporter.com/2020/04/06/behind-the-model-that-projected-5500-deaths-in-alabama-and-why-it-changed/">https://www.alreporter.com/2020/04/0...
Just to be clear: the lower death toll is a result of social-distancing measures. The lower projected death toll is also a result of new data inputs. It& #39;s a combination of both. The model assumes complete adherence to social-distancing through August.
As I say in the piece, this model is live. The longer we go on, the more data we have, the better the projections get. But my point about social-distancing is that the death toll is as low as 920 BECAUSE of social distancing, not just data.
If we abandon social-distancing, these projections are worthless because of the underlying assumptions about social-distancing.
