Read on Twitter
The modelling data shared by ON today highlights a basic conundrum re: gov& #39;t measures to limit the pandemic& #39;s spread. On the one hand, models tell us that lives - many lives - would be saved by decreeing lockdowns, fewer declared essential services, etc. #Covid_19 #cdnpoli
You might think therefore the moral imperative would be to dictate the imposition of those measures - basically shut people into their homes. And governments must surely be looking at the models and wondering if that& #39;s not the logical and correct thing to do #Covid_19 #cdnpoli
But it& #39;s just not that simple for decision-makers. The harder you squeeze, the more sand you spray from your clenched fist. Will such strict measures - taken pre-emptively to avoid greater rates of infection and mortality - be accepted by our society? #Covid_19 #cdnpoli
Experts tell us that for maximum effect you need prophylactic actions. But, paradoxically, to avoid spraying too much sand - i.e. to get people to comply - you need the threat to be real, the risk to be pointed, the stakes to be undeniable. #Covid_19 #cdnpoli
During the 1990s& #39; drive to eliminate the deficit we had a saying at Finance. Mr. Martin used to caution about the "public withdrawing their consent to be governed" - meaning that drastic gov& #39;t actions must be well understood by people or they would be rejected #Covid_19 #cdnpoli
In turn, that means gov& #39;ts must sometimes shock and startle the public into accepting that sacrifice - enormous sacrifice - is the only palatable option. When it comes to shitty vs fatal, people will pick shitty. But they have to be convinced that& #39;s the choice #Covid_19 #cdnpoli
I see today& #39;s release of projections and Ford& #39;s newser as an effort to illustrate that choice - to shock and startle the public. Not for exploitative reasons but to secure popular consent to be governed through times that are set to become even more difficult #Covid_19 #cdnpoli
In that respect, I view today as a sophisticated, crystal-clear exercise in conditioning public opinion. At its most effective, it jars the public into stricter adherence. Alternatively, it builds permission for the imposition of more intrusive measures #Covid_19 #cdnpoli
It& #39;s easy to say & #39;lock people down and do it now& #39; but w/out an agreeing population gov& #39;t orders are writ in smoke. Before today, I wasn& #39;t as animated about the need to release modelling as were many others. Now I see its virtue. It might literally save lives. #Covid_19 #cdnpoli
