There& #39;s something I& #39;m not getting here. If the avg symptoms-to-death time& #39;s just under 18 days & average contraction to symptoms time is just over 5, that means 23 days from contracting CV to death. 563 died on 31-Mar. So if that& #39;s 0.6% of cases, 93800 people got CV on 8-Mar+

+Note that that& #39;s *got* it that day. Not *had* it. Deaths are growing abt 24% per day. So if 93.8k got it on 8-Mar, 117k got it on 9-Mar & so on. So by 23-Mar 2.44m people wld hv bn getting CV per day.+

(Yes. You read that right. 2.44m per day.)

+So far, so straightfwd. Now here comes the 1st bad bit. If 2,440k (2.44m) got it on 23-Mar (the day the lockdown occurred in the evening), 0.6% of them will die 23 days later - 15 April (abt when the govt says deaths will peak). But that& #39;s 14,700 deaths that day.+

+OK. That seems bad, you might say. But it& #39;s only the start. Apparently with the lockdown we& #39;ve now cut the R0 to 0.6%. So each person gives it to only 0.6 other folk. So the 2.44m that got it on 23-March will give it to only 1.47m, & so on.+