Some information starting to emerge on how #COVID19 #coronavirus could impact global #foodsecurity. Here is my personal take:

THREAD 1/16
As of March 16th, at least 25 countries in Africa have reported confirmed cases of COVID-19.

See: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

4/16">https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc...
Africa’s 1.2 billion people face the highest percentage of undernourishment on the planet, affecting over 20% of the population.

COVID-19 has proved especially deadly for health-compromised individuals. This will include people suffering from severe malnourishment.

5/16
It is believed that the survival rate from Ebola was affected by what healthcare workers call “preceding nutritional status” or the baseline nutritional health of people affected by the virus.

We know this to be true of HIV patients as well.

See: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/137425/9789241508056_eng.pdf

6/16">https://apps.who.int/iris/bits...
COVID-19 poses a great threat to nations lacking robust social safety nets. In the U.S., steps have already been taken to help kids maintain access to school meals.

These safety nets simply don& #39;t exist in exist in many developing countries.

8/16
In fact, less than 20 percent of people living in low-income countries have access to social protections of any kind.

See @WorldBank& #39;s work on this here: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/427871521040513398/pdf/124300-PUB-PUBLIC.pdf

9/16">https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/e...
While food supplies & prices have remained stable to-date (staple prices are even down slightly), animal feed & high-value food product supply chains are being affected.

Broader supply breaks are likely.

See this from @RobVos26 & team @IFPRI: https://www.ifpri.org/blog/covid-19-spreads-no-major-concern-global-food-security-yet

11/16">https://www.ifpri.org/blog/covi...
The food price spikes of 2007/8 show that export restrictions, market speculation & panic behavior were, in part, responsible for the dramatic increase in global food prices in that period.

We are not protected against these measures today.

See: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/6103.pdf

12/16">https://www.odi.org/sites/odi...
In developing countries, many families already spend upwards of half of their income on food. Countries that rely heavily on imported food to meet demand—including sub-Saharan Africa—face disproportionate risk from supply chain failures.

13/16
COVID-19 may cause the global economy to slow or fall into recession, exacerbating extreme poverty and hunger.

@OECD has has dramatically revised their projections for global GDP growth this year.

See: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/business/economy/global-economy-coronavirus.html

14/16">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/0...
We know from the latest #SOFI report that economic decline, poverty and food insecurity often accompany one another.

"Hunger has increased in many countries where the economy has slowed down or contracted."

See: https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000106763/download/?_ga=2.148785906.454478674.1584113625-1018911202.1579039603

15/16">https://docs.wfp.org/api/docum...
Entering 2020, the number of hungry and malnourishment people around the world was already on the rise. COVID-19, risks frustrating the efforts of humanitarian and food security organizations seeking to reverse these trends.

Let& #39;s keep diligent.

END 16/16
Will keep these coming on this thread:

Another good resource on #COVID19 and global #foodsecurity from @USAID& #39;s Bureau for Resilience and Food Security.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.agrilinks.org/post/coronavirus-and-implications-food-systems-and-policy">https://www.agrilinks.org/post/coro...
As Malaysia restricts travel from #COVID19, Singapore considers its #foodsecurity prospects. Some panic buying at supermarkets.

The country, which imports 90% of its food, has stockpiled food for three months and has diversified its trading partners.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/the-people-in-singapore-will-not-go-hungry-food-security-expert">https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore...
Despite the title of this piece, reasons to be optimistic about #COVID19 & #foodsecurity in sub-Saharan Africa:

1) Youngest population on earth
2) Many rural, sparsely populated areas
3) Not transmitted through livestock
4) High temps may slow virus

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/ticking-time-bomb-scientists-worry-about-coronavirus-spread-africa">https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...
The average American has three days of fresh food reserves—"we are all only ever nine meals from anarchy.”

The perils of our "just enough, just in time" global food system in the face of #COVID19 via @ConversationUS

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-the-perils-of-our-just-enough-just-in-time-food-system-133724just">https://theconversation.com/coronavir...
“Authorities [in Venezuela] were stopping producers from delivering food across the whole country, and so far the government had not issued them with any sort of permission to pass through checkpoints unhindered.”

#COVID19 #foodsecurity

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-venezuela-idUSKBN2143QY">https://www.reuters.com/article/u...
Important reminder from @nprDanCharles that while restaurants shutter, “food producers, are operating almost as normal — at least for now” with thousands of H-2A workers risking illness to provide critical farm labor this season.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.npr.org/2020/03/18/816644358/covid-19-threatens-food-supply-chain-as-farms-worry-about-workers-falling-ill">https://www.npr.org/2020/03/1...
Global food stocks look O.K. in the face of #coronavirus #COVID19 according to @FAO. Estimated 3 month buffer of cereals.

NOT evenly distributed, of course. 34 of 44 countries requiring external trade or humanitarian assistance are in Africa.

See: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/">https://www.fao.org/worldfood...
Important words from Jacob Kurtzer of @CSISHumAgenda on the impacts of #COVID19 #coronavirus on humanitarian organizations and those in desperate need of assistance around the world.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index"> http://csis.org/analysis/impact-covid-19-humanitarian-crises">https://csis.org/analysis/...
Our friends @USGLC on the global #foodsecurity impacts of #COVID19.

As their Advisory Council chairs write, "No matter how successful we are in fighting the threat at home, we will never stop it unless we are also fighting it around the world."

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index"> https://www.usglc.org/blog/impact-of-coronavirus-on-global-hunger/">https://www.usglc.org/blog/impa...
"The flour is in production and the mills are running fine. People shouldn’t be concerned about supply. It’s a demand issue."

More affirmation from growers and millers in North America that the food system is working.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index"> https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-wheat/north-american-millers-bakers-scramble-to-satisfy-bread-buying-binge-idUKKBN21A30P">https://uk.reuters.com/article/u...
One of the first examples of food prices increases from #COVID19.

@AlJazeera reporting that some food prices in Khartoum, Sudan have more than tripled since the first case was reported.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-sudan-food-medical-supplies-short-supply-200318131141974.html">https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...
Rwanda is also seeing food price increases from #COVID19.

"Late on Monday, the trade ministry fixed prices for 17 food items including rice, sugar and cooking oil."

Panic buying, hoarding, and price gauging to blame.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.dw.com/en/price-hikes-in-africa-aggravate-the-coronavirus-crisis/a-52820553">https://www.dw.com/en/price-...
“The worst that can happen is that governments restrict the flow of food."

@MaximoTorero @FAO is right. This isn& #39;t 2008, supply is ample but concentrated in certain countries.

Trade helps break it loose, avoiding price spikes and, ultimately, hunger.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-measures-could-cause-global-food-shortage-un-warns">https://www.theguardian.com/global-de...
The first post in the @NutritionConnex series on #COVID2019 and #FoodSystems by @FAO Chief Economist @MaximoTorero.

1) Safety nets
2) Free trade
3) Invest in supply chains
4) Support farmers to keep growing

@l_haddad of @GAINalliance with the assist.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index"> https://nutritionconnect.org/resource-center/covid-19-and-food-supply-four-pronged-battle-plan-countries">https://nutritionconnect.org/resource-...
Acting Director of @WFP Supply Chain:

" @WHO continues to advocate for no restrictions to transport and trade, however countries will act based on their own risk assessment, and some supply chains may be disrupted."

Read morehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.unocha.org/sites/unocha/files/Global-Humanitarian-Response-Plan-COVID-19.pdf">https://www.unocha.org/sites/uno...
"Experience from other infectious disease outbreaks makes clear that malnourished individuals have a higher risk of becoming ill, a longer duration of illness, and greater risk of death."

Read more on this from @WFPUSA board member @DanRGlickman.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index"> https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/opinions/healthy-diet-immune-system-covid-19-mozaffarian-glickman-nikbin-meydani/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/2...
The latest from @JoeGlauber1, @RobVos26, Will Martin and David Laborde of @IFPRI on #COVID19 impacts on global food prices.

A reminder: this does NOT have to be 2007/8 all over again. Global markets are well supplied.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.ifpri.org/blog/covid-19-trade-restrictions-are-worst-possible-response-safeguard-food-security">https://www.ifpri.org/blog/covi...
While global food markets are well supplied in the face of #COVID19, this does NOT always protect vulnerable populations in their own markets.

Border closings, unscrupulous traders, hoarding and panic buying will affect food ACCESS.

Reminder from Sudanhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index"> https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/prices-soar-across-sudan-as-coronavirus-measures-bite">https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-ne...
Glad to have @cullenhendrix of @sie_center @PIIE adding his voice to this important conversation.

"Export restrictions are blunt instruments that further exacerbate the problems they were designed to address."

Read more herehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/wrong-tools-wrong-time-food-export-bans-time-covid-19">https://www.piie.com/blogs/rea...
Wheat & rice prices rising on global markets as countries stockpile. No reason to panic (talking to you, governments), a natural response to increased demand from millers trying to restock shelves & import-reliant countries doing what they do.

Read morehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Rightwards arrow" aria-label="Emoji: Rightwards arrow"> https://www.wsj.com/articles/wheat-and-rice-prices-surgein-coronavirus-lockdown-11585598044">https://www.wsj.com/articles/...
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