People forget that Africa gets a fraction of the global intercontinental travel traffic. It& #39;s unlikely that we are miraculously immune to COVID-19. More likely that infected people are less likely to visit Africa.

Awkward phrasing but you get the point.

Don& #39;t forget Jan- Mar is also low season for tourism to most African countries. My instinct is that - if travel trends hold constant and handwashing fails - we will see an uptick in cases in Africa around April when folks in Europe and North America start taking Easter breaks

In addition to countries who receive a lot of tourists from these regions- South Africa, Kenya, Senegal, Seychelles, Madagascar - you will have countries like Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana and Somaliland with significant diaspora communities returning around this time.

Bottom line, I don& #39;t think it& #39;s immunity. I think it& #39;s a time lag. And sensible countries will use this lag to get ready. My two cents.