Provincial finances are the biggest fiscal challenge we face as a country over the next 10 years.

Then next issue of @CdnTaxFdn Canadian Tax Journal will feature the fiscal situation of 3 provinces, offering some fiscal ideas that work.

It will be out in a few weeks! https://twitter.com/melissaroyle/status/1198000394070380545">https://twitter.com/melissaro...

To get a sense of magnitudes of the coming provincial fiscal challenge, imagine we need to find 3% of GDP to fund demographic-driven health spending by 2030. Some say it will be less; some more. But let& #39;s look at 3%.

3% of today& #39;s economy is $69B.

That& #39;s about 8 GST points.

Sometimes, people see the provincial fiscal future and become alarmed at federal debt because something something.

If you had a fed govt that cut *$100B* out of its future spending path, that would only mean like $2B in year in saved interest cost. A drop in the bucket.

Many options on the table:
- Shrink fed spending and taxes; let provs take up "room"
- increase fed taxes; increase CHST transfers.
- feds take on more spending responsibility to lighten provincial load.
- status quo: provs raise taxes a lot or drown in debt.
- others!