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Unpopular opinion: playing smart makes you good money, playing degen style makes you life changing money (with a much higher chance of ruin)
Few will understand where I’m coming from
Few will understand where I’m coming from
If you feel the urge to tell me I’m an idiot, you clearly don’t get it
Numbers, charts, probabilities, etc only go so far. The best traders/sports bettors I’ve ever associated with all relied on another key, their gut
Identifying +EV opportunities is huge, but few talk about factors beyond our control, things numbers can’t tell you
Identifying +EV opportunities is huge, but few talk about factors beyond our control, things numbers can’t tell you
Life is about streaks. It plays a huge roll in everyday life, yet people chose to write it off as some unquantifiable myth that shouldn’t be accounted for
The people who embrace this often hit home runs, while those who don’t settle for infield singles on the regular
The people who embrace this often hit home runs, while those who don’t settle for infield singles on the regular
I’d love to sit here and tell you that I’m financially independent because I showed incredible discipline and patience, but I’d be lying
While I did practice these majority of the time, the home runs were often hit while “pressing when I was hot” with little regard for +EV/edge
While I did practice these majority of the time, the home runs were often hit while “pressing when I was hot” with little regard for +EV/edge
Most won’t get it, not because they’ve never taken those risks, but because they couldn’t identify the appropriate time to take said risks
Timing is so crucial
People often increase exposure (chase) when they’re losing, while flat betting when they’re winning
Ass backwards imo
Timing is so crucial
People often increase exposure (chase) when they’re losing, while flat betting when they’re winning
Ass backwards imo
You’ll often hear stories of people on incredible streaks. Few compound on the way up, but majority start chasing with larger positions AFTER winning 15/18, and it’s followed by the inevitable down turn and mean reversion
Most don’t possess the emotional control to navigate risky waters
If you have a fair amount of discipline and emotional control (most don’t), a risk averse flat betting strategy is only capping your potential gains during hot runs
If you have a fair amount of discipline and emotional control (most don’t), a risk averse flat betting strategy is only capping your potential gains during hot runs
Can you increase your stake 5-10x+ and have the discipline to immediately revert back once a streak ends? Most don’t, and that’s why it often leads to ruin
“All I need to do is win one more to get back to that elusive number” and then they lose 5 in a row at 5x regular risk
“All I need to do is win one more to get back to that elusive number” and then they lose 5 in a row at 5x regular risk
It’s not that this doesn’t work, it’s most can’t make it work
Big difference between the two
Big difference between the two
Contrary to popular belief, there is such thing as a smart degen
The difference between a smart degen and a deadbeat degen is knowing when to flip that degen switch on
Few know how to do this, most fail miserably
The difference between a smart degen and a deadbeat degen is knowing when to flip that degen switch on
Few know how to do this, most fail miserably
Nothing pisses me off more than sitting st the BJ table and watching someone else rip off 10 straight hands flat betting the entire way
The house has an edge. Unless you’ve flipped that edge (unlikely), you’re inevitably going to give it back at some point
The house has an edge. Unless you’ve flipped that edge (unlikely), you’re inevitably going to give it back at some point
Your edge comes with being able to identify a streak early and increasing risk
I once walked into a casino and walked out with 35k in 12 minutes
Sat down at the BJ table and started with a base unit of $300. Won the first, lost the second, and then ripped off 12 in a row
I once walked into a casino and walked out with 35k in 12 minutes
Sat down at the BJ table and started with a base unit of $300. Won the first, lost the second, and then ripped off 12 in a row
A couple BJ’s and doubles later, I won 35k in 12 minutes and walked out. If I was flat betting, I would have won max 4K, but I compounded after every winning hand and took full advantage of the streak. By the time the streak ended, I was betting the table max
The first hand I lost after the 12 hand run ended, I reduced my base unit to 1k, lost, got up and left
Virgin: flat bets and leaves with 4K
Chad: compounds/rides the streak and leaves with 35k
Problem here is, the deadbeat degen continues betting the table max and loses it all
Virgin: flat bets and leaves with 4K
Chad: compounds/rides the streak and leaves with 35k
Problem here is, the deadbeat degen continues betting the table max and loses it all
The smart degen gets up and leaves knowing he’s padded his degen roll preparing for his next window of opportunity to flip that degen switch back on
People who claim that “gut feeling is bullshit and charts, models or whatever are the only sure fire way to victory”
Wrong, these people just don’t get it. Those who get it know what I mean. Smart degens typically have great instincts, they embrace their gut feeling
It’s huge
Wrong, these people just don’t get it. Those who get it know what I mean. Smart degens typically have great instincts, they embrace their gut feeling
It’s huge
