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1/OK so people wanted a thread on how 2010s America is becoming 1990s Japan, so here we go.
The most obvious similarity is economic. Japan had a giant real estate bubble burst in the early 90s. Ours burst in the late 2000s.
The most obvious similarity is economic. Japan had a giant real estate bubble burst in the early 90s. Ours burst in the late 2000s.
2/The result for Japan was a "lost decade" of low growth. For us the slowdown was milder, but we still had one.
3/In both countries, the central bank responded by lowering interest rates to 0. Ours have recently come up slightly; Japan& #39;s never did.
4/Both countries suffered slow wage growth. Japan& #39;s was worse.
5/Along with slow wage growth and slow economic growth, both countries suffered low business dynamism - not a lot of new businesses getting started. In both countries, that trend predated the crisis.
Big business thus became more powerful in both places.
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/haltiwanger_conference_draft.pdf">https://www.brookings.edu/wp-conten...
Big business thus became more powerful in both places.
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/haltiwanger_conference_draft.pdf">https://www.brookings.edu/wp-conten...
6/And in both countries, fertility rates fell after the crisis. Japan& #39;s fell more. But both countries were looking at the prospect of an aging population.
7/Add these trends up:
* slower wage growth
* big business dominance
* more old people being supported by fewer young people
The result: A loss of hope for the future.
* slower wage growth
* big business dominance
* more old people being supported by fewer young people
The result: A loss of hope for the future.
8/And yet despite these diminished prospects, Japanese kids in the 1990s found themselves still having to study like crazy in order to have a shot at one of those big corporate jobs. https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2013/11/japans-cutthroat-school-system-a-cautionary-tale-for-the-us/281612/">https://www.theatlantic.com/education...
9/Of course, soul-crushing college prep was for the kids whose parents thought they had a shot at the top jobs. Working-class kids dropped out of the college rat race.
Sound familiar?
Sound familiar?
10/Some blame school pressure and economic hopelessness for the rise of another trend in 1990s Japan: hikikomori, or shut-ins who never left their houses. https://qz.com/789082/the-hikikomori-problem-in-japan-hundreds-of-thousands-of-young-people-are-refusing-to-leave-their-homes/">https://qz.com/789082/th...
11/And of course, the 90s was when the "sexless Japan" trope emerged.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/20/young-people-japan-stopped-having-sex
Young">https://www.theguardian.com/world/201... "herbivore" men were the chief worry.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2009/06/japan-panics-about-the-rise-of-herbivores-young-men-who-shun-sex-don-t-spend-money-and-like-taking-walks.html
Sound">https://slate.com/news-and-... familiar? https://www.thedailybeast.com/number-of-men-under-30-who-havent-had-sex-in-last-year-tripled-in-past-decade">https://www.thedailybeast.com/number-of...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/20/young-people-japan-stopped-having-sex
Young">https://www.theguardian.com/world/201... "herbivore" men were the chief worry.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2009/06/japan-panics-about-the-rise-of-herbivores-young-men-who-shun-sex-don-t-spend-money-and-like-taking-walks.html
Sound">https://slate.com/news-and-... familiar? https://www.thedailybeast.com/number-of-men-under-30-who-havent-had-sex-in-last-year-tripled-in-past-decade">https://www.thedailybeast.com/number-of...
12/And another trend that emerged in 1990s Japan: Single people still living with their parents. https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/ten-million-japanese-singles-refuse-to-leave-home-1.345300">https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/t...
13/Sound familiar?? :-) https://qz.com/1248081/the-share-of-americans-age-25-29-living-with-parents-is-the-highest-in-75-years/">https://qz.com/1248081/t...
14/One disturbing trend from 90s Japan was "enjo kosai", or teen prostitution, where teen girls would meet middle-aged men and either sleep with them or string them along for money and gifts. https://www.lauraagustin.com/enjo-kosai-compensated-dating-in-japan">https://www.lauraagustin.com/enjo-kosa...
15/And 2010s America has the exact same thing, only we call it "sugar daddies". https://theconversation.com/sugar-daddy-capitalism-even-the-worlds-oldest-profession-is-being-uberised-109426">https://theconversation.com/sugar-dad...
16/So:
* economic stagnation
* entrenched big corporations
* massive pressure to take tests and get into college
* lost and aimless (and often sexless) youth
2010s America = 1990s Japan!
But there are some big differences...
* economic stagnation
* entrenched big corporations
* massive pressure to take tests and get into college
* lost and aimless (and often sexless) youth
2010s America = 1990s Japan!
But there are some big differences...
17/For one thing, 1990s was the height of Japanese pop (and underground) culture.
When people around the world fall in love with Japan, what they& #39;re often falling in love with is the 90s and early 00s. https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/07/think-the-us-is-having-a-90s-nostalgia-craze-take-a-look-at-japan/277356/">https://www.theatlantic.com/entertain...
When people around the world fall in love with Japan, what they& #39;re often falling in love with is the 90s and early 00s. https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/07/think-the-us-is-having-a-90s-nostalgia-craze-take-a-look-at-japan/277356/">https://www.theatlantic.com/entertain...
18/American pop and underground culture, in contrast, doesn& #39;t seem to be experiencing a similar efflorescence (though of course that& #39;s subjective and hard to judge).
19/Another difference is political. Japanese politics was very dysfunctional in the 1990s. They went through 7 prime ministers and other chaos.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_Japan">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_Japan">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...
20/But Japan never experienced the ugly populist politics of 2010s America. There was no big backlash against minorities (Koreans) or foreigners. There was no strongman like Trump.
21/So I don& #39;t want to overextend the analogy here.
In economic terms, and sometimes in social terms, 2010s America has followed in the footsteps of 1990s Japan. But in political terms we& #39;re responding to our slowdown in a different and decidedly more frightening way.
In economic terms, and sometimes in social terms, 2010s America has followed in the footsteps of 1990s Japan. But in political terms we& #39;re responding to our slowdown in a different and decidedly more frightening way.
22/Frankly, America could do worse at this point than to follow in Japan& #39;s footsteps. If Trump were followed by a reformist liberal nationalist like Shinzo Abe, I& #39;d be very happy. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2014-06-11/japan-s-abe-is-the-world-s-best-leader">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...
