#Probabilities

el gato malo

boriquagato

update: before you let someone try to scare you with US case counts, please remember this:"reporting case counts without reference to testing levels is tantamount to lying."US cases are not

Deus Ex Machina Begins❌

EgonEnglish

1) One thing that limited my view of Q was the presumption that no one can predict the future. Q seemingly does this in several separate episodes. Far too many

Amr Ammourazz

ammourazz

IMO, the concept that's at the core at almost any mechanics or dice math conversation in one of swinginess. Even when it's not the topic being directly discussed, it informs

Amy Webb

amywebb

We will see more bizarre stories like this during the next few weeks. This is another strong signal about election next-order outcomes. Futurists use an important framework in times like

Conor McQuiston

ConorMcQ5

A little over a week ago Nick sent off this tweet about determining drive quality independent of outcome. After some help and conversations with him, I think I've gotten to

Jim OShaughnessy

jposhaughnessy

1/ "The greatest progress that the human race has made lies in learning how to make correct inferences." ~NietzscheWe make a number of important decisions by inference, what happens when

Santiago

svpino

Got asked a ton of questions about Machine Learning!I decided to build a short FAQ to help you move forward.Here are my answers to the 10 most frequently asked questions

John P. Hussman

hussmanjp

THREAD: Pinning my prior #COVIDー19 threads and a 2/3/20 post here. Adding more posts below. If they're helpful PLEASE RETWEET. Feb 2 thread: https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1224040569476874244March 8 thread: https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/sta

Rabbi Josh Yuter

JYuter

1. THREAD: We need to have a conversation on reductive Judaism. Specifically, when people reduce complicated halakhic issues to one aphorism in isolation of everything else, we wind up with

Diveinordie

diveinordie

question: how much do you know about the moon?space is wild. one thing is for sure… there aren’t many of us who can personally confirm what’s going on up there.

Sarah Salviander

sarahsalviander

Why materialists need to stop using the monkeys on typewriters analogy and Christians need to stop worrying.Here's Dawkins’ commentary on why people are compelled by the fine-tuning argument. Well, let’s

Glen Peters

Peters_Glen

THREAD: Are emission scenarios useful (& for whom)?A hard hitting & useful commentary on emission scenarios. Written in 2008, but the issues remain the same...1/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045016/meta Global chang

Ritesh Banglani

banglani

I want to talk about children's mental health in these times.Advance apologies because it is totally trivial compared to people losing their lives and loved ones. But till you d*e

Kert Viele

KertViele

(1/n) Tweetorial…When people talk about a trial “stopping early”, that implies there is an “on time”. Standard trials really “look late”, and interim analyses bridge the gap. Examples in terms

Askeladden Capital

AskeladdenTX

2 weeks ago, Twitter predicted today’s TX COVID hospitalizations far more accurately than biased “experts.”How? Bayesian logic + data + science from *unbiased* experts, esp Dr. Gabriela Gomes. @mgmgomes1THREAD: what

Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌

RachelBitecofer

Hotdog! Who's ready for the Sept Forecast Update. Y'all are gonna love it, bc it introduces a revised & better model created by @sam_epstein which expands on my OG vision: