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DJ Chark Thread - why he’s a buy low.
6’3 - 200lbs - 24y.o
He’s fast:
40 yard dash - 4.34 (98th percentile)
Speed score - 115.3 (96th percentile)
Burst score - 132.5 (93rd percentile)
But can he catch a football?
6’3 - 200lbs - 24y.o
He’s fast:
40 yard dash - 4.34 (98th percentile)
Speed score - 115.3 (96th percentile)
Burst score - 132.5 (93rd percentile)
But can he catch a football?
2019:
QB Gardner Minshew
47th in redzone completion 45.6%
(When targeting Chark - 50%)
QB rating (95.9) - 105.7 when targeting Chark
73 rec on 117 targets with 0 drops
8 TDs (8th)
QB Gardner Minshew
47th in redzone completion 45.6%
(When targeting Chark - 50%)
QB rating (95.9) - 105.7 when targeting Chark
73 rec on 117 targets with 0 drops
8 TDs (8th)
2020:
His QBs were AWFUL.
Minshew, Glennon, Luton.
Target accuracy was 98th when targeting Chark, and 91st in catchable target rate (70.2%) where only 66 targets were deemed catchable..
Chark still managed to be 24th in contested catch rate.
His QBs were AWFUL.
Minshew, Glennon, Luton.
Target accuracy was 98th when targeting Chark, and 91st in catchable target rate (70.2%) where only 66 targets were deemed catchable..
Chark still managed to be 24th in contested catch rate.
Does Chark have some flaws ?
Absolutely, here are his downsides
2020
75th in YAC per target - doesn’t get extra yards.
True catch rate 80.3% (83rd) this stat suggests that he only catches 80.3% of catchable targets.
48th in yards per reception
Target separation 62nd.
Absolutely, here are his downsides
2020
75th in YAC per target - doesn’t get extra yards.
True catch rate 80.3% (83rd) this stat suggests that he only catches 80.3% of catchable targets.
48th in yards per reception
Target separation 62nd.
But if Chark is continues to be used in a similar fashion, his upside is huge? Why? Because he’s used in big play situations:
14th in avg DOT
5th in deep targets
9th in unrealized air yards
Keep reading...
14th in avg DOT
5th in deep targets
9th in unrealized air yards
Keep reading...
Over last two seasons, Chark put up TDs on 6.16% of targets.
Remove Chark from the equation, the bad Jags offense put up TDs on 3.62% of passes thrown not to Chark...
That says ALOT about his TD upside with TLaw coming in town...
So a little on Trevor Lawrence
Remove Chark from the equation, the bad Jags offense put up TDs on 3.62% of passes thrown not to Chark...
That says ALOT about his TD upside with TLaw coming in town...
So a little on Trevor Lawrence
Pass eff rating 164.3
His longest completion in each year?
74 yards, 87 yards, 83 yards
This season his average longest completion per game? 51.2 yards..
Then, there’s also the fact that he has one of the best QB college resumes of all time.
His longest completion in each year?
74 yards, 87 yards, 83 yards
This season his average longest completion per game? 51.2 yards..
Then, there’s also the fact that he has one of the best QB college resumes of all time.
Hold on, what about Shenault ?!?
THEY CAN CO-EXIST.
Shenault will be the short-to-medium yardage, gadget player, while Chark gets the medium-to-long targets.
I expect a very similar target share between players. Right now I’m at 125 each, if they both play 16 games..
THEY CAN CO-EXIST.
Shenault will be the short-to-medium yardage, gadget player, while Chark gets the medium-to-long targets.
I expect a very similar target share between players. Right now I’m at 125 each, if they both play 16 games..
What does this look like for both players in terms of my personal projected efficiency?
Chark
79 rec
1106
8.5 TDs
HPPR - 201.1 (WR13)
PPR - 240.6 (WR15)
Shenault
90 rec
1026 yards
7 TDs
HPPR - 189.6 (WR18)
PPR - 234.6 (WR17)
Chark
79 rec
1106
8.5 TDs
HPPR - 201.1 (WR13)
PPR - 240.6 (WR15)
Shenault
90 rec
1026 yards
7 TDs
HPPR - 189.6 (WR18)
PPR - 234.6 (WR17)
So there you have it.
I really do expect/project Chark to bounce back strong, and feed of TLaws ability to be accurate in the deep ball game, and in no way will this interfere with Shenault success. I know the dynasty world is raving over Shenault...
I really do expect/project Chark to bounce back strong, and feed of TLaws ability to be accurate in the deep ball game, and in no way will this interfere with Shenault success. I know the dynasty world is raving over Shenault...
And Shenault is one of my favorite players to own in dynasty, but the price to buy Chark is much lower than that of Shenault now.
Chark should have a higher fantasy points per target than shenault, because that’s the nature of his role in this offense...
Chark should have a higher fantasy points per target than shenault, because that’s the nature of his role in this offense...
..and if we think critically about how Chark has been Utilized in this offense over the last two years, and the volume he’s seen, it only makes sense to me to project this way.
And yea I’m aware of Collin Johnson, he’s already statted in for ~600 yards, 4 TDs.
Go Buy Chark.
And yea I’m aware of Collin Johnson, he’s already statted in for ~600 yards, 4 TDs.
Go Buy Chark.
