Thread by @AlexanSimon85, The QB market this offseason is fascinating. I’m gonna provide my own [...]

The QB market this offseason is fascinating. I’m gonna provide my own perspective on the competitive dynamics that will shape the movements we see this offseason, then I’m going to STFU b/c I won’t have any more to add, and I’m sure many will find a ton to rip into, lol (1/ )

I break the market down into two fundamental components:

(1) the demand: teams that are set at QB, teams may need QBs, and teams that will absolutely be in the market for a new QB

(2) the supply: all of the available options, broken down into various categorical buckets

(2/ )

The Demand:

As I see it, 13 teams are set at QB heading into ‘21 (I call this Group A):

BUF (Allen)
TEN (Tannehill)
BAL (Lamar)
CLE (Mayfield)
CIN (Burrow)
KC (Mahomes)
LAC (Herbert)
GB (Rodgers/Love)
PHI (Wentz/Hurts)
MIN (Cousins)
SEA (Wilson)
ARI (Murray)
NYG (Jones)

(3/ )

Note that this does NOT mean that all Group A teams have ideal situations—just that they are unlikely to be active participants because they have already have a franchise QB (or the promise of one) or they have committed too heavily in draft or actual capital to move on

(4 / )

That leaves 19 teams who could be active.

8 of them have incumbents who the team may or may not stick w/ in ‘21 (Group B):

LVR (Carr—trade)
PIT (Ben—retirement)
DAL (Dak—FA)
TB (Brady—retirement)
ATL (Ryan—trade)
LAR (Goff—trade)
MIA (Tu’a—trade)
NYJ (Darnold—trade)

(5/ )

The Group B teams are the wild cards in the market. If Brady & Ben retire, Jets & Dolphins get enamored w/ Fields/Wilson & the rest decide to shake things up, things can get VERY interesting. If Brady & Ben return and the rest hold pat, the picture becomes clearer.

(6/ )

Then you’ve got the final group (Group C) of 11 teams that are the most likely to be active in the market. Maybe a few stick with what they have, but these are the ones I’d expect to make the most noise:

WFT
NEP
IND
HOU
JAX
DEN
NOLA
CAR
CHI
DET
SF

(7/ )

So from the demand side of things, you’re likely to see anywhere from 11-19 teams actively pursuing a new QB for ‘21. Some will be looking for their long-term answers; others may be in the market for a “win now” type of push for a 1-3 year window of opportunity.

(8/ )

Now I’m going to look at the supply side of the market.

The first group I look at are the Tier 1 QBs. These are the 6 guys who are 100% available and you would genuinely be happy about landing in ‘21–no qualms whatsoever:

Watson
Stafford
Lawrence
Fields
Wilson
Lance

(9/ )

The next tier of QBs are the Top Tier incumbents from Group B that would be made available if their teams opt to move on. You would also genuinely be excited if your team landed these guys (Tier 1A):

Dak
Ryan
T’ua

(10/ )

So the market will have either 6 or 9 Tier 1/1A QBs to meet the needs of 11 or 19 teams, respectively.

If Group B holds onto its incumbent QBs, 6 teams will get Tier 1 QBs and 5 teams will still be in the market; that goes to 9 & 10, respectively, if Group B is active.

(11/ )

For the remaining teams, you then enter the Tier 2 territory: these are guys you probably won’t get excited about, but could talk yourself into. I’ll use the same framework (Tier 2 vs. Tier 2A) to distinguish b/w those 100% available and those who may or not be

(12/ )

Tier 2:

Jameis
Mariota
One of Wentz/Hurts
Mac Jones
Kyle Trask

Tier 2A:

Carr
Goff
Darnold

At this point, I’ve assumed that somewhere between 5 and 10 teams will still be in the market after missing out on the Tier 1/1A QBs. This comes DAMN close to plugging the gap.

(13/ )

The interesting nuance is that there are 2 wild cards that could settle the demand/supply gap altogether: if Brady & Ben decide NOT to retire and come back for another year, then there are theoretically enough QBs to fill the holes of every QB-needy team heading into ‘21

(14/ )

But even if both Ben/Brady retire and all of Group B activates QB-search mode, you will still likely have only a small handful of teams (2-5) searching for a temporary QB solution while they await ‘22. And the thing is: the “Temporary QB” basket of options is not bare.

(15/ )

Temporary/Bridge QBs:

Garrapolo
Bridgewater
Tyrod
Fitzmagic
Foles
Cam
Trubisky
Brissett
Minshew

You probably won’t be happy with the above, but if you’re just looking to hold the fort for a year, in typical years you can do a LOT worse (remember Beck? Weurffel? Rex?)

(16/ )

So what’s my takeaway? I think there’ll be a few teams that’ll panic & pay ASTRONOMICAL capital for Tier 1 QBs. Others will be patient and get nice value options. But the big winners will be sellers that reap huge returns on trades, then settle for a solid leftover option

(17/ )

I’ll be really interested in seeing if one of the selling teams can reap massive draft capital, use a bridge for ‘21, then land a top pick in ‘22 to get next year’s elite prospect while surrounding that QB w/ immense talent at the top of the draft from this year’s moves

(18/ )

Bottom line: the QB market is gonna be crazy, but at the end of the day, a vast majority of QB-needy teams should walk into ‘21 feeling pretty satisfied. If I were in a GM position, I’d wait to see how the first few dominoes fall before deciding whether to go aggressive.

( /End)

If you made it this far, here’s a pic of my lunch.

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