1/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — SPECIAL EDITION

Normally, this is a 30-45 min interactive session where I make real-time observations for counties or states that matter to *you*

Today, let’s take a data-driven walk through Biden’s COVID-19 Plan https://buildbackbetter.gov/uncategorized/fact-sheet-president-elect-biden-outlines-covid-19-vaccination-plan/
FACT SHEET: President-elect Biden Outlines COVID-19 Vaccination Plan | President-Elect Joe Biden

https://buildbackbetter.gov/uncategorized/fact-sheet-president-elect-biden-outlines-covid-19-vaccination-plan/
2/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan
1️⃣Encourage states to allow more people to be vaccinated including individuals 65 and older as well as frontline workers

🔸So, how many people are 65+ years old?
2020 Census estimate: ~54.3 million

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/coverage-measurement/da.html
3/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

Biden is promising 100M *shots* in 100 days

🔸If they ensure that everyone is vaccinated on schedule that leaves that *at least* 8.6 million persons 65+ yrs old without at least 1 dose; frontline staff get no doses at all
4/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

🔸 So, how many frontline workers are there?
An analysis by @AdieTomer @jwkane1 of @BrookingsInst found that 90M persons are employed by “essential industries”— of those ~50M are “frontline”

https://www.brookings.edu/research/to-protect-frontline-workers-during-and-after-covid-19-we-must-define-who-they-are
4/ Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan So, how many frontline workers are there?An analysis by @AdieTomer @jwkane1 of @BrookingsInst found that 90M persons are employed by “essential industries”— of those ~50M are “frontline” https://www.brookings.edu/research/to-protect-frontline-workers-during-and-after-covid-19-we-must-define-who-they-are
4/ Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan So, how many frontline workers are there?An analysis by @AdieTomer @jwkane1 of @BrookingsInst found that 90M persons are employed by “essential industries”— of those ~50M are “frontline” https://www.brookings.edu/research/to-protect-frontline-workers-during-and-after-covid-19-we-must-define-who-they-are
4/ Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan So, how many frontline workers are there?An analysis by @AdieTomer @jwkane1 of @BrookingsInst found that 90M persons are employed by “essential industries”— of those ~50M are “frontline” https://www.brookings.edu/research/to-protect-frontline-workers-during-and-after-covid-19-we-must-define-who-they-are
4/ Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan So, how many frontline workers are there?An analysis by @AdieTomer @jwkane1 of @BrookingsInst found that 90M persons are employed by “essential industries”— of those ~50M are “frontline” https://www.brookings.edu/research/to-protect-frontline-workers-during-and-after-covid-19-we-must-define-who-they-are
5/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

Biden is promising 100M *shots* in 100 days

🔸If the Biden team ensures that every frontline worker is vaccinated on schedule, that would consume all vaccination capacity — leaving none for seniors 65+ yrs older
6/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

In reality, Biden isn’t starting from zero: some have already been vaccinated, but it’s not as many as you’d think. Per CDC:

🔸 Only 1.4M doses have been administered in long-term care facilities

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
7/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

🔸 Only 12.3M doses have been administered overall
🔸 Best-case scenario another 5M doses are administered between now and inauguration day (i.e. 1M/day)

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
8/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

Taken together:
🔸>65 yr + frontline workers = 104M (max, there’s overlap)

🔸~16M will have received at least 1 dose by Jan 20

🔸 88M eligible for vaccine and have not received at least 1 dose by Jan 20th
9/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

Upshot for point 1️⃣ of Biden’s Plan:

Biden’s plan would make 88M persons eligible, but only promises to deliver capacity to vaccinate 47M within the first 100 days.

(assumes that doses are given on time)
10/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

Deficiency in point 1️⃣:

Biden’s plan *excludes* teachers, which are considered “essential” but not “frontline” according to
🔸Department of Homeland Security and
🔸Bureau of Labor Statistics

see: https://www.brookings.edu/research/to-protect-frontline-workers-during-and-after-covid-19-we-must-define-who-they-are
11/😷 Jan 15 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

The actual text of the plan uses the term “frontline essential,” which taken in context means:

1 in 3 persons would be eligible for vaccination

That would effectively make prioritization meaningless.

cc @JInterlandi
12/😷 Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

I couldn’t help myself…I built a dashboard to help me explore the census data and try to make sense of the Biden Plan.

It uses 2018 Census data, but that’s only 3M persons off from 2020 Census.

https://datastudio.google.com/s/hmh_7mpUMTk 
13/😷 Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

So, with this new resource we can be far more specific and data-driven.

🔸 Let’s remove anyone under the age of 18 since there are no vaccines approved for minors —> that leaves 248.8M persons that need a vaccine.
14/😷 Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

Filtering for counties where *at least* 20% of residents are 65+ yrs yields a subpopulation of 111M— these are the states and counties where Biden’s team should focus their efforts.

cc @JeffZients @XavierBecerra
14/ Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine PlanFiltering for counties where *at least* 20% of residents are 65+ yrs yields a subpopulation of 111M— these are the states and counties where Biden’s team should focus their efforts.cc @JeffZients @XavierBecerra
14/ Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine PlanFiltering for counties where *at least* 20% of residents are 65+ yrs yields a subpopulation of 111M— these are the states and counties where Biden’s team should focus their efforts.cc @JeffZients @XavierBecerra
15/😷 Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

The colors correspond to the % of non-White persons living in the county (yellow is most diverse, then purple, then cyan, then gray)

The list of counties is equitable in several ways…

cc @JeffZients @XavierBecerra
16/😷 Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

We’ve generated a rank-ordered list of counties that span rural -> urban that’s racially/ethnically diverse

Let’s filter *further* for counties w/ at least 25% non-White populations:

cc @JeffZients @XavierBecerra
17/😷 Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine Plan

Unfortunately, this approach only covers 12.3M persons aged 65 years and older…so there’s still work to do. Let’s pause here and pick things up tomorrow.

url: https://datastudio.google.com/s/t62RXNEXY-o 
17/ Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine PlanUnfortunately, this approach only covers 12.3M persons aged 65 years and older…so there’s still work to do. Let’s pause here and pick things up tomorrow. url: https://datastudio.google.com/s/t62RXNEXY-o 
17/ Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine PlanUnfortunately, this approach only covers 12.3M persons aged 65 years and older…so there’s still work to do. Let’s pause here and pick things up tomorrow. url: https://datastudio.google.com/s/t62RXNEXY-o 
17/ Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine PlanUnfortunately, this approach only covers 12.3M persons aged 65 years and older…so there’s still work to do. Let’s pause here and pick things up tomorrow. url: https://datastudio.google.com/s/t62RXNEXY-o 
17/ Jan 16 #COVID19 Data Discovery — Biden Vaccine PlanUnfortunately, this approach only covers 12.3M persons aged 65 years and older…so there’s still work to do. Let’s pause here and pick things up tomorrow. url: https://datastudio.google.com/s/t62RXNEXY-o 
💯 Quick correction https://twitter.com/mentalplex/status/1350687226192039936
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