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Since I have a lot of folks asking me what I think is going to happen tomorrow in Georgia, when we'll know results, and what to watch for, I've got a few bigger picture closing thoughts to share.
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1. Let's start with when we'll know results. Because counties were required to begin preparing mail-in ballots early this time, I expect tabulation will go faster. Also, fewer ballots overall.
Barring a <1000-vote margin outcome, I expect we'll know for sure Thursday.
Barring a <1000-vote margin outcome, I expect we'll know for sure Thursday.
That said, I think we'll know a lot tomorrow night when we get a general idea of turnout in some key GOP counties that had poor early voting showings.
I'd expect we'll actually have a good idea of who wins by Wednesday, late afternoon. We have reasonable benchmarks this time.
I'd expect we'll actually have a good idea of who wins by Wednesday, late afternoon. We have reasonable benchmarks this time.
2. Let's talk about what to watch for.
For starters, I'll be watching tomorrow morning to see how many absentee ballots were accepted today. These are the most favorable to Ds, and will further pad their lead.
For starters, I'll be watching tomorrow morning to see how many absentee ballots were accepted today. These are the most favorable to Ds, and will further pad their lead.
But in terms of bellwether counties, you're really looking for 3 things.
1. Does R turnout recover in NW/SE Georgia?
2. Does R turnout recover in the Atlanta exurbs?
3. Does D turnout match its strength from the early vote?
But here's the thing...
1. Does R turnout recover in NW/SE Georgia?
2. Does R turnout recover in the Atlanta exurbs?
3. Does D turnout match its strength from the early vote?
But here's the thing...
You're not looking at whether any counties flip. I don't care if Peach County flips back Dem. Sorry Dave Wasserman, that's the old Georgia.
I'm looking at whether Carroll County is on pace to turn out 46,000 total votes (~85% of November), or 42,000 (~78%).
I'm looking at whether Carroll County is on pace to turn out 46,000 total votes (~85% of November), or 42,000 (~78%).
Obviously if D voters are turning out at higher rates in these places and overall turnout is down, that'll affect candidate vote share and margin, but really you're looking for an aggregate picture of whether Ossoff and Warnock are on pace to close the ~90k gap Perdue won by.
For more on that see this table and brief explainer. https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1345079151292768267
The counties I'm *most* interested to see are Cherokee, Hall, and Forsyth (all ATL exurbs).
But Caroll, Floyd, Whitfield, Bartow, Barrow, & a handful of others with poor early vote turnout that can give us an early indication of whether we'll see a sufficient GOP turnout surge.
But Caroll, Floyd, Whitfield, Bartow, Barrow, & a handful of others with poor early vote turnout that can give us an early indication of whether we'll see a sufficient GOP turnout surge.
Here's why I'm so interested in Cherokee. It's the best R county in the state with Cobb and Gwinnett flipping, and its early vote in this runoff has been utterly abysmal relative to what we saw in the general election. https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1345822344812572672
If overall turnout there is on pace to crack 120k (84% of November)...the GOP is in ok shape. If it's more like 105k (73%), which is roughly what you'd get if you added its November election day turnout to the current early vote tally, then it's probably curtains for them.
3. And finally, what I think will happen.
Normally you wouldn't put such a close race in a "likely" category, but given the early vote data, I have a really hard time not putting both races in the likely Dem category. So much of this is already baked.
Normally you wouldn't put such a close race in a "likely" category, but given the early vote data, I have a really hard time not putting both races in the likely Dem category. So much of this is already baked.
I do agree with the conventional wisdom that ticket splitting will be minor, and that it'll favor Warnock/Perdue.
If I had to put numbers to it, I'd go with Warnock by 1.5% and Ossoff by 1.3%.
1.5% is 60,000 votes in a 4M vote scenario, which is where I think we'll end up.
If I had to put numbers to it, I'd go with Warnock by 1.5% and Ossoff by 1.3%.
1.5% is 60,000 votes in a 4M vote scenario, which is where I think we'll end up.
4. Last but not least, let's talk overall turnout expectations.
We're roll into tomorrow with 3.1M or so votes cast, when there were 4M early in the general. Of those 3.1M, 120k< didn't vote last time.
1M showed up on 11/3 last time. So in theory there are ~2M feasible voters.
We're roll into tomorrow with 3.1M or so votes cast, when there were 4M early in the general. Of those 3.1M, 120k< didn't vote last time.
1M showed up on 11/3 last time. So in theory there are ~2M feasible voters.
GOP bull cases point to the fewer in-person early voting days as a reservoir of potential voters who'll show up tomorrow. There will absolutely be a lot of these, but how many? Most will have voted early on other days if they intended to vote at all.
Moreover, as @gtryan notes on http://georgiavotes.com , ~115k of the folks who voted on Election Day in November already voted early this time. So fewer than 900k of those remain. Given what we've seen with other early voting, assuredly 150k-200k of those do not show tomorrow.
Bottom line, I do not see us coming anywhere close to the 1.3M Nate Cohn and other national analysts have speculated we might see tomorrow. And certainly not enough for the GOP to pull these off.
I'd put 80% odds on a Dem sweep.
I'd put 80% odds on a Dem sweep.
