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Aurobindo CMP 868
The company is developing:
14 Biosimilars (5 of these expected to launch by FY25 with a US$20 market size)
8 inhalers (US market size is >$10 Bn)
Pneumcoccal Conjugate Vaccine (US$6.2 bn global market size)
3 depot injectables (US$3.3 bn market size)
The company is developing:
14 Biosimilars (5 of these expected to launch by FY25 with a US$20 market size)8 inhalers (US market size is >$10 Bn)Pneumcoccal Conjugate Vaccine (US$6.2 bn global market size)3 depot injectables (US$3.3 bn market size)
Co also developing 50 Other Complex generics
Peptides (US$14.5 Bn Mkt size-Global $2.5 bn size for 5 filed ANDAs and Global $12bn for 10 under development)
Topicals (US$4 Bn Mkt size-26 products under development currently out of total 37 products identified for development)
Peptides (US$14.5 Bn Mkt size-Global $2.5 bn size for 5 filed ANDAs and Global $12bn for 10 under development)Topicals (US$4 Bn Mkt size-26 products under development currently out of total 37 products identified for development)
Transdermal patches (US$3 Bn Global Mkt size) : 8 products under development (Clinical trials to begin for the 1st product in FY21)Nasals (US$1.3 Bn Mkt size) : 1 approved + 4 under development (Filing will be done over the course of next 3 yrs)#Aurobindopharma
#Growth
Biosimilars
14 biosimilars are frm oncology, respiratory, rheumatology & ophthalmology therapy
1st few launches are likely to be in oncology & ophthalmology molecule
Likely to launch its 1st 2 biosimilars in Europe
This biz has a high gestation period & involves high risk
14 biosimilars are frm oncology, respiratory, rheumatology & ophthalmology therapy1st few launches are likely to be in oncology & ophthalmology moleculeLikely to launch its 1st 2 biosimilars in EuropeThis biz has a high gestation period & involves high risk
Aurobindo's biosimilars program is 2nd only to Biocon (28 biosimilars under development), in the indian pharma space)Expected incremental sales contribution would be in the range of ~30% to 80% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS report)
Respiratory
Developing 8 inhalers (market size of USD 10 bn)
Patents seem to have already expired on most of the large MDI inhalers
Expected incremental sales would be in the range of ~4% to 10% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS report)
Developing 8 inhalers (market size of USD 10 bn)Patents seem to have already expired on most of the large MDI inhalersExpected incremental sales would be in the range of ~4% to 10% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS report)
Depot Injectables
Developing generic versions of 3 depot injectables (US$3.3 bn market size)
Expected incremental sales would be in the range of 2% to 6% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS report)
#AUROPHARMA
Developing generic versions of 3 depot injectables (US$3.3 bn market size)Expected incremental sales would be in the range of 2% to 6% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS report)#AUROPHARMA
Pneumcoccal vaccines and other products
Expected incremental sales from Pneumococcal vaccines and other complex generics (Peptides, Topicals, Transdermal Patches and Nasals) would be 12% to 34% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS Report)
Expected incremental sales from Pneumococcal vaccines and other complex generics (Peptides, Topicals, Transdermal Patches and Nasals) would be 12% to 34% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS Report)
Q2FY21
Sustained performance in the ARV category & the traction in US biz
Anitbiotic APIs saw muted demand (50% exposure)
Company filed for 24 ANDAs (10 Injectables)
ANDAs unde review, tentatively approved, potentially cater to an addressable market size of ~$92 Bn
Sustained performance in the ARV category & the traction in US bizAnitbiotic APIs saw muted demand (50% exposure)Company filed for 24 ANDAs (10 Injectables)ANDAs unde review, tentatively approved, potentially cater to an addressable market size of ~$92 Bn
Injectables Portfolio
Co's steady execution on its injectables portfolio has been improving the quality of biz in the US
In Jun'20, 22% of Co's products marketed in the US were injectables compared to 12% in Jun'15
20% of Co's revenue comes from injectables v/s 6% in 2015
Co's steady execution on its injectables portfolio has been improving the quality of biz in the USIn Jun'20, 22% of Co's products marketed in the US were injectables compared to 12% in Jun'1520% of Co's revenue comes from injectables v/s 6% in 2015
Generated 6% PAT margin frm its injectable biz vs corporate avg of 12%Injecatble biz RoE was ~55% vs corproate avg of 19%Co represents ~42% of US Injectable sales made by Indian listed cosDue to higher entry barriers, Injectable pricing has been more stable than orals
Injectable & Inhaler Generics are comfortably outgrowing orals in US Generics mktCo is having 5 commercialized Injectables formulations facilities & 5 Injectables API facilitiesInjectable generics has less than 4 mkt participants per product compared to 7 in Oral generics
Key development to watch
Traction in Biosimilars
Turnaround in the EU biz leads to improvement in the EBITDA margin
Acquired biz of Apotex provides access to newer mkts (likely to breakeven in H2FY21)
Turnaround in Apotex will lead to improvement in OPM of European biz!!
Traction in BiosimilarsTurnaround in the EU biz leads to improvement in the EBITDA marginAcquired biz of Apotex provides access to newer mkts (likely to breakeven in H2FY21)Turnaround in Apotex will lead to improvement in OPM of European biz!!
Valuation
Consistently outgrown IND generic exporting peers over the past 5 yrs
Likely to turn net debt free by FY22
Co is currently trading at ~14x fwd PE (40% disc. vs Indian Generic Peers)
Source: GS Research, AR 2019-20
Disc: Not a buy/sell Reco. Just for study purpose
Consistently outgrown IND generic exporting peers over the past 5 yrsLikely to turn net debt free by FY22Co is currently trading at ~14x fwd PE (40% disc. vs Indian Generic Peers)Source: GS Research, AR 2019-20
Disc: Not a buy/sell Reco. Just for study purpose
